NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	7.1 [369]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +21.2%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.3 [968]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (MIA): -15.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.21	0.13	0.09	0.00	8	75%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	7	75%	0.22	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	10	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.00	7	59%	0.13	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	7	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	7	21%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.12	0.10	-0.16	0.06	16	75%	0.12	6	-0.24	8	75%	-0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	11	45%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.11	0.01	9	73%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	61%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	55%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.04	15	59%	0.13	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.02	0.04	8	59%	0.07	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.06
Tony Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	13	55%	0.11	4	-0.16	14	57%	-0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	10	35%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	36.0	20.8	33.2	2.6	47.2	168.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +17.4%

MIA -1.8%

BOS +37.1%

MIA -9.6%

BOS +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.8	15.7	15.3	110.9	117.6	106.0
season	16.2	15.5		104.4	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.4		102.1	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	16.3	14.8	14.9	15.8
BOS	14.8	17.2	18.8	12.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	11	9	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.02	2	-7	9	15.8	15.8	0.04	23.3	14.9	8.48
Dwyane Wade	79	78	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-11	17	15.4	18.4	-3.03	15.2	18.5	-3.23
Daequan Cook	34	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-2	-1	14.9	16.3	-1.33	15.5	15.8	-0.25
Rafer Alston	59	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-8	11	15.0	17.2	-2.13	15.1	16.9	-1.82
Quentin Richardson	67	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-5	5	15.0	17.8	-2.83	15.7	15.6	0.07
Udonis Haslem	60	59	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.28	1	-6	7	15.6	16.2	-0.57	15.6	15.8	-0.14
Carlos Arroyo	13	13	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	6	-17	18.4	15.4	3.03	18.5	15.2	3.23
Jermaine O'Neal	58	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-3	1	16.2	15.0	1.19	15.4	16.3	-0.91
Michael Beasley	50	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	6	-17	16.6	14.8	1.79	15.9	15.5	0.39
Dorell Wright	29	29	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	5	-15	18.2	14.7	3.54	15.2	15.9	-0.71

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	83	82	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-4	13	15.6	16.7	-1.16	15.7	16.4	-0.69
Rajon Rondo	84	86	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	3	-1	15.4	19.0	-3.58	15.7	16.5	-0.77
Kendrick Perkins	52	52	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	0	5	15.3	16.2	-0.81	15.8	15.8	0.01
Eddie House	47	44	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	3	-1	15.0	16.4	-1.34	15.7	15.8	-0.06
Kevin Garnett	61	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	2	1	14.6	17.9	-3.29	15.1	17.2	-2.03
Rasheed Wallace	36	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	-1	7	17.7	14.4	3.36	17.5	14.7	2.75
Tony Allen	52	56	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.28	-4	9	-13	15.7	15.6	0.13	15.1	16.8	-1.63
Brian Scalabrine	9	9	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	-1	7	19.3	15.3	4.04	16.2	15.7	0.49
Glen Davis	29	30	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	6	-7	17.9	14.7	3.18	16.5	15.5	1.02
Henry Walker	2	3	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	8	-11	3.0	16.0	-12.98	17.0	15.7	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.67,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.6%
SAS 96, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.64,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.78,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.1%
PHI 76, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.0%