NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	7.3 [343]		MVP	Corey Maggette (GSW): +19.8%
Golden State Warriors	104		Comeback	3.5 [173]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -9.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	7	72%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	9	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.03	0.03	0.00	9	60%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.06	0.01	10	60%	0.16	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	15	47%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Brandon Jennings	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	16	61%	0.21	7	-0.20	9	89%	0.03
Jodie Meeks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.03	0.00	14	78%	0.32	4	-0.12	13	92%	0.07
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	7	71%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08
Stephen Curry	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	17	49%	0.05	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	31	49%	0.04	5	-0.14	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	33.7	14.8	30.7	2.6	31.9	141.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.0%

MIL +8.6%

MIL +17.0%

GSW -1.7%

MIL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	13.2	15.3	109.7	101.0	106.0
season	15.5	13.4		103.3	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.5		110.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.0	13.3	13.0	16.2	14.8
GSW	13.0	12.9	13.7	13.2	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	77	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-5	19	15.2	13.7	1.50	13.6	12.1	1.43
Luc Mbah a Moute	80	81	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	0	9	15.6	11.9	3.69	13.1	13.5	-0.46
Brandon Jennings	76	73	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	1	7	14.8	14.6	0.20	13.1	13.5	-0.45
Carlos Delfino	50	51	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.25	3	6	-3	15.2	14.4	0.82	13.0	13.4	-0.44
Luke Ridnour	47	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.29	-1	10	-11	15.6	14.1	1.58	12.8	13.5	-0.70
Charlie Bell	63	63	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.09	11	-2	13	13.8	16.3	-2.57	13.3	13.1	0.18
Ersan Ilyasova	43	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.04	6	3	3	15.1	14.5	0.54	13.5	13.0	0.53
Hakim Warrick	49	50	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	9	-9	13.6	15.8	-2.22	13.4	12.9	0.50
Jodie Meeks	30	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	14	-19	13.0	15.5	-2.55	12.8	13.4	-0.58

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Morrow	9	9	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.07	9	-18	27	11.3	13.4	-2.03	16.6	14.6	1.95
Chris Hunter	25	26	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.07	5	-14	19	13.3	13.1	0.18	13.0	15.4	-2.33
Corey Maggette	89	89	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-2	-5	13.3	12.2	1.12	15.2	11.9	3.30
Devean George	43	42	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.01	-14	5	-19	13.3	13.1	0.16	12.0	16.7	-4.69
Andris Biedrins	72	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-3	-3	13.4	12.6	0.77	15.6	12.9	2.63
Monta Ellis	103	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	13.2	0.0	13.18	14.8	0.0	14.78
Stephen Curry	103	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	13.2	0.0	13.18	14.8	0.0	14.78
Cartier Martin	71	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	5	-19	12.9	13.8	-0.96	15.5	13.2	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.05,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0	94.0%
LAL 100, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.01,0	93.1%
MIL 91, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	93.0%