NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	5.9 [615]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +16.5%
Boston Celtics	83		Comeback	1.1 [365]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -18.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.04	0.01	13	69%	0.20	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Taj Gibson	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	14	48%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.01	0.05	6	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06
Derrick Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.04	16	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	6	92%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Giddens	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.05
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	18	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	10	40%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	14	43%	-0.01	5	-0.17	7	43%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	3.5	30.5	19.7	29.3	3.7	36.3	152.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +5.3%

CHI +8.0%

CHI +11.3%

CHI +19.8%

CHI +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	15.8	15.3	102.1	86.5	106.0
season	14.7	15.5		101.9	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.7		102.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.9	12.9	14.7	15.5	14.5
BOS	17.1	15.9	16.0	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	77	77	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.12	14	-1	15	14.5	14.1	0.49	16.8	11.9	4.92
Joakim Noah	62	62	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.01	18	-5	23	14.3	14.7	-0.35	16.4	14.9	1.53
Taj Gibson	57	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-3	19	14.1	14.9	-0.81	16.5	14.8	1.66
Derrick Rose	57	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	1	11	14.8	13.9	0.89	16.4	14.9	1.48
John Salmons	64	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	11	-9	14.4	14.5	-0.06	15.5	16.5	-0.95
Kirk Hinrich	66	68	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.19	16	-3	19	14.2	15.1	-0.87	15.6	16.3	-0.67
Tyrus Thomas	34	35	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	18	-23	14.9	14.2	0.62	15.1	16.3	-1.19
Brad Miller	32	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	18	-23	14.7	14.3	0.35	14.9	16.4	-1.53
James Johnson	17	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	14	-15	14.1	14.5	-0.49	11.9	16.8	-4.92
Jannero Pargo	4	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	15	-17	15.2	14.4	0.83	12.7	16.0	-3.23

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	39	37	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-21	29	14.7	16.6	-1.94	15.0	14.1	0.85
Shelden Williams	17	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-14	15	13.8	16.3	-2.53	13.6	14.6	-0.96
J.R. Giddens	1	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-11	9	4.0	16.0	-11.97	15.0	14.5	0.55
Glen Davis	51	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-12	11	15.4	16.3	-0.92	14.7	14.2	0.48
Tony Allen	28	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-11	9	14.3	16.5	-2.20	14.3	14.5	-0.24
Brian Scalabrine	39	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-3	-7	17.4	14.8	2.64	14.3	14.5	-0.21
Paul Pierce	79	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-4	-5	16.0	15.2	0.74	14.7	13.1	1.61
Kendrick Perkins	73	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	2	-17	16.3	14.4	1.85	14.6	14.0	0.66
Ray Allen	71	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.05	-17	4	-21	16.3	14.7	1.57	13.9	16.0	-2.02
Rajon Rondo	82	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.03	-18	5	-23	16.1	14.1	2.07	14.4	14.9	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.32,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.27,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.03,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
SAS 108, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.29,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.0%
SEA 106, GSW 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.39,0.27,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%