NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	5.0 [812]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +19.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	121		Comeback	2.1 [867]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -8.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Hunter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	8	56%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.02	9	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.07	14	64%	0.06	3	-0.08	11	64%	-0.04
Monta Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.02	14	59%	0.08	4	-0.11	11	64%	-0.03
CJ Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	15	47%	0.00	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.03	-0.00	21	70%	0.25	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	70%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	17	58%	0.11	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	17	55%	0.08	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	15	37%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	3.3	31.0	18.0	28.1	1.8	30.0	141.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +18.6%

MEM +7.3%

MEM +11.4%

MEM +10.5%

MEM +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MEM	NBA	GSW	MEM	NBA
this game	12.6	15.3	15.3	104.9	117.5	106.0
season	13.4	15.4		106.5	106.8
opponent	15.0	14.8		108.4	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.9	14.2	14.1	10.3	12.6
MEM	16.2	13.0	15.3	16.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	76	76	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-12	11	12.9	12.0	0.82	16.0	13.4	2.64
Corey Maggette	72	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	-7	1	12.2	13.5	-1.30	15.7	14.5	1.10
Stephen Curry	89	89	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-10	7	12.3	14.9	-2.65	15.4	14.7	0.70
Monta Ellis	73	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-9	5	12.1	13.9	-1.78	16.4	12.5	3.90
Chris Hunter	69	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-9	5	12.0	13.9	-1.94	15.4	15.1	0.36
Anthony Randolph	40	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	1	-15	14.7	11.3	3.33	14.0	16.2	-2.23
Anthony Morrow	64	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	1	-15	12.8	12.4	0.37	14.2	17.1	-2.91
CJ Watson	32	32	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.08	-19	6	-25	13.7	12.1	1.61	13.8	16.0	-2.19

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	81	81	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.01	20	-7	27	15.5	14.7	0.81	12.2	14.4	-2.19
DeMarre Carroll	39	40	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.20	26	-13	39	12.6	17.0	-4.31	13.7	11.9	1.81
Zach Randolph	85	85	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	3	7	15.8	13.3	2.48	12.4	13.7	-1.31
Jamaal Tinsley	35	35	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.13	19	-6	25	13.9	16.0	-2.13	14.2	11.8	2.41
Mike Conley	82	83	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	8	-3	15.9	13.0	2.85	12.4	13.7	-1.38
O.J. Mayo	89	88	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.19	2	11	-9	15.3	15.2	0.12	12.3	14.9	-2.61
Rudy Gay	59	59	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	19	-25	17.1	13.0	4.13	11.8	13.7	-1.86
Sam Young	32	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.22	-9	22	-31	15.0	15.5	-0.51	14.0	12.0	1.97
Hasheem Thabeet	13	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	15	-17	12.3	15.8	-3.45	14.0	12.5	1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 108, POR 120	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
NJN 72, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
CHA 94, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%