NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	4.7 [858]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +16.6%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	1.4 [728]		LVP	Andres Nocioni (SAC): -10.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.03	0.04	16	71%	0.21	2	-0.04	16	87%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.02	13	73%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	10	77%	0.17	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	-0.02	15	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	9	71%	0.12	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.03	19	60%	0.15	2	-0.05	12	83%	-0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	8	78%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	16	54%	0.07	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	73%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	4	50%	-0.04	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.04
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	13	35%	-0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	2.5	30.3	15.5	27.8	2.0	34.4	141.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +45.5%

MIA +9.4%

SAC -11.1%

MIA +7.5%

SAC -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	15.3	122.3	109.7	106.0
season	16.2	15.2		104.4	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.4		108.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	16.0	14.4	17.0	15.1
SAC	16.4	16.0	17.6	13.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	65	64	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.02	24	-11	35	14.9	15.5	-0.59	15.3	16.6	-1.24
Dorell Wright	57	55	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.06	18	-5	23	15.1	15.0	0.12	15.3	16.4	-1.17
Dwyane Wade	76	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-1	15	14.6	17.2	-2.66	15.7	15.7	0.01
Quentin Richardson	71	70	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.03	15	-2	17	14.5	16.9	-2.38	16.0	15.0	1.03
Joel Anthony	58	58	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.13	2	11	-9	14.6	15.8	-1.23	16.3	14.7	1.63
Michael Beasley	62	62	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	14	-15	15.8	13.7	2.06	15.9	15.4	0.52
James Jones	23	23	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	15	-17	16.9	14.5	2.38	15.0	16.0	-1.03
Mario Chalmers	58	58	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	18	-23	15.6	14.2	1.43	15.8	15.6	0.21

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	12	12	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-15	17	16.6	15.6	0.98	15.9	15.0	0.97
Kenny Thomas	12	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-8	3	14.9	15.9	-0.94	14.5	15.2	-0.71
Sergio Rodriguez	23	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-11	9	14.0	16.3	-2.24	15.5	14.9	0.57
Andres Nocioni	60	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-10	7	16.4	14.6	1.79	14.4	16.2	-1.79
Omri Casspi	36	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-9	5	13.6	17.1	-3.41	16.6	14.1	2.46
Ime Udoka	5	4	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-4	-5	19.6	15.5	4.09	4.2	15.6	-11.31
Spencer Hawes	52	52	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-10	7	16.7	14.5	2.14	15.8	14.1	1.73
Donte Greene	81	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-10	7	15.6	16.4	-0.79	14.7	17.2	-2.41
Beno Udrih	46	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-4	-5	13.8	17.6	-3.81	15.9	14.3	1.64
Jason Thompson	64	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-2	-9	16.7	13.6	3.12	14.4	16.6	-2.19
Tyreke Evans	74	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.00	-18	5	-23	16.3	13.5	2.77	15.2	14.7	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 115, PHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.05,0,0,0,0	94.8%
HOU 111, SAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.5%
CHI 104, MIN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.5%