NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	100		Excitement	4.2 [964]		MVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): +8.9%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	1.5 [317]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -21.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	0.01	0.07	13	80%	0.14	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	5	77%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	7	71%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	23	58%	0.14	4	-0.11	9	100%	0.06
Etan Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	14	41%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	6	17%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	9	40%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.11	-0.01	0.09	11	65%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Dorell Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	1	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	54%	0.00	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.08	15	54%	-0.02	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.05	0.03	19	44%	-0.06	6	-0.16	12	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.7	36.1	15.8	26.2	2.5	32.2	141.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +32.7%

OKC +7.6%

MIA -1.6%

OKC +10.0%

OKC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.2	15.3	113.6	96.7	106.0
season	15.0	16.2		106.2	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.7	15.5	15.8	21.8	16.1
MIA	16.8	16.5	16.2	15.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	75	74	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	-3	19	15.9	17.5	-1.57	16.2	16.3	-0.10
Nenad Krstic	55	56	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	2	9	15.4	17.3	-1.93	16.6	15.6	1.08
Thabo Sefolosha	63	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	6	1	16.2	16.0	0.23	16.9	14.7	2.21
Nick Collison	41	44	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	2	9	18.5	14.1	4.38	14.9	17.5	-2.64
Russell Westbrook	61	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	9	-5	15.9	16.7	-0.89	17.4	13.7	3.70
Kevin Ollie	27	29	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	4	5	16.7	15.9	0.89	13.7	17.4	-3.70
Etan Thomas	29	30	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	8	-3	17.7	15.4	2.33	15.9	16.4	-0.45
Jeff Green	59	60	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	14	-15	14.7	19.1	-4.39	17.2	14.2	3.00
James Harden	26	30	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.07	6	7	-1	16.2	16.1	0.15	14.8	16.9	-2.10
Serge Ibaka	4	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	16	-19	14.7	16.2	-1.44	12.7	16.4	-3.65

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	44	42	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.16	8	-21	29	15.3	17.1	-1.75	18.3	14.1	4.22
Mario Chalmers	59	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-11	9	16.9	15.0	1.93	15.5	17.3	-1.73
Dorell Wright	14	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	-5	-3	14.7	16.5	-1.80	15.5	16.2	-0.72
Michael Beasley	44	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-7	1	17.1	15.4	1.63	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Joel Anthony	18	16	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-1	-11	15.2	16.5	-1.26	17.2	15.9	1.30
Udonis Haslem	62	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-5	-3	15.4	18.1	-2.67	17.1	13.9	3.23
Jermaine O'Neal	69	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-10	7	16.9	14.1	2.73	15.9	16.9	-0.98
Carlos Arroyo	31	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-2	-9	15.0	16.9	-1.93	17.3	15.5	1.73
Quentin Richardson	34	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-2	-9	18.0	15.1	2.89	13.9	17.5	-3.65
Dwyane Wade	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	-1	-11	16.1	17.0	-0.92	15.5	19.6	-4.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 108, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
IND 106, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
NOH 95, LAC 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%