NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	9.2 [95]		MVP	Channing Frye (PHX): +37.4%
Phoenix Suns	101		Comeback	3.6 [529]		LVP	Jarrett Jack (TOR): -16.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	15	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	5	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	-0.01	-0.05	19	56%	0.15	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	9	61%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.17,-0.1	0.01	-0.09	0.02	20	50%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.19	0.19	0.01	9	100%	0.40	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.08	0.02	15	73%	0.38	4	-0.18	11	91%	0.08
Steve Nash	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.15,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.09	0.01	21	52%	0.19	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.05
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	6	37%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	11	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	31.4	14.8	26.3	2.4	33.3	132.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +11.2%

PHX +46.0%

PHX +10.4%

TOR -18.4%

PHX +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHX	NBA	TOR	PHX	NBA
this game	16.4	14.7	15.3	108.7	108.6	106.0
season	15.0	14.4		109.6	113.5
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.0	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.9	15.5	17.3	17.1	16.4
PHX	13.5	14.5	15.5	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	65	67	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.35	15	-16	31	15.8	17.9	-2.05	15.0	14.0	1.08
DeMar DeRozan	38	38	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	0	-1	16.9	16.1	0.79	14.9	14.7	0.21
Sonny Weems	15	16	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-2	3	16.7	16.4	0.32	15.6	14.6	0.99
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.31	3	-4	7	16.2	17.4	-1.22	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Jarrett Jack	35	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	2	-5	16.7	16.2	0.50	14.9	14.7	0.23
Amir Johnson	48	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	4	-9	16.9	15.9	1.03	15.1	14.4	0.72
Marco Belinelli	54	55	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.54	0	-1	1	16.1	16.9	-0.79	14.7	14.9	-0.21
Jose Calderon	61	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.46	-3	2	-5	16.5	16.3	0.17	14.5	15.2	-0.63
Chris Bosh	71	70	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.43	-12	11	-23	16.6	15.7	0.95	14.2	16.3	-2.13

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	66	66	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.44	7	-6	13	14.3	15.9	-1.62	16.8	15.3	1.47
Jared Dudley	48	45	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.60	1	0	1	15.6	13.8	1.78	16.7	16.1	0.52
Jason Richardson	78	78	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.45	3	-2	5	14.3	16.9	-2.61	16.0	18.5	-2.47
Steve Nash	71	71	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-3	7	15.0	13.8	1.27	16.2	17.0	-0.77
Channing Frye	58	57	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	-2	5	14.6	14.9	-0.28	16.5	16.2	0.37
Amar'e Stoudemire	71	72	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	-2	5	15.3	13.0	2.22	16.3	16.9	-0.64
Leandro Barbosa	31	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.04	6	-5	11	14.7	14.7	-0.00	18.0	15.6	2.36
Earl Clark	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	4	-7	11.1	15.1	-4.02	17.6	16.3	1.28
Goran Dragic	10	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	8	-15	15.5	14.7	0.85	15.3	16.5	-1.24
Lou Amundson	23	21	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.09	-12	13	-25	14.5	14.8	-0.29	14.3	17.0	-2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 90, DAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.26,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.55,0.69,0.58,1	91.5%
CLE 73, BOS 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.28,1	91.5%
BKN 95, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.83,1	91.1%