NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	4.6 [875]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (MIA): +19.3%
Indiana Pacers	83		Comeback	1.0 [674]		LVP	T.J. Ford (IND): -9.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.09	-0.03	13	58%	0.21	1	-0.01	12	67%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	9	52%	0.07	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.00	19	56%	0.09	2	-0.07	19	74%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	89%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	9	50%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	9	21%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	63%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Price	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	48%	0.00	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	10	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	20	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	9	30%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	8	35%	-0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	2.4	31.5	19.3	33.9	2.7	32.5	151.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.5%

MIA +12.2%

MIA +2.6%

IND -0.7%

IND -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	14.6	15.3	102.1	90.2	106.0
season	16.2	14.2		104.4	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.4		105.3	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	17.0	14.1	20.1	16.4
IND	16.4	15.7	13.6	12.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	69	69	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.13	24	-11	35	15.5	18.8	-3.28	14.6	14.5	0.04
Dwyane Wade	66	67	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.06	20	-7	27	16.2	16.9	-0.71	15.2	12.8	2.41
Jermaine O'Neal	65	64	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.08	20	-7	27	15.4	18.6	-3.12	14.9	13.7	1.16
Michael Beasley	61	57	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	1	11	15.9	17.3	-1.35	14.6	14.4	0.20
Quentin Richardson	54	56	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.01	14	-1	15	15.9	17.1	-1.23	14.7	14.4	0.32
Daequan Cook	37	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	12	-11	16.2	16.5	-0.29	13.8	15.0	-1.20
Yakhouba Diawara	13	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	10	-7	15.3	16.6	-1.26	10.9	15.0	-4.14
Joel Anthony	29	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.20	-7	20	-27	18.6	15.4	3.12	13.7	14.9	-1.16
Carlos Arroyo	25	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.25	-11	24	-35	18.8	15.5	3.28	14.5	14.6	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	51	52	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.17	-11	24	-35	18.2	14.3	3.94	14.7	14.3	0.45

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	42	40	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.19	7	-20	27	14.2	14.9	-0.67	18.6	14.8	3.80
A.J. Price	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	7.3	14.8	-7.46	22.5	16.3	6.24
Josh McRoberts	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	7.3	14.8	-7.46	22.5	16.3	6.24
Dahntay Jones	55	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-16	19	14.7	14.3	0.48	17.4	14.8	2.62
Jeff Foster	7	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-9	5	18.0	14.3	3.73	15.0	16.5	-1.49
Earl Watson	47	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-12	11	15.1	14.0	1.13	17.8	14.9	2.90
Solomon Jones	60	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-6	-1	14.4	14.7	-0.30	16.1	16.9	-0.81
Roy Hibbert	32	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-7	1	14.7	14.4	0.30	16.9	16.1	0.81
T.J. Ford	42	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-2	-9	14.5	14.6	-0.19	14.6	18.0	-3.43
Troy Murphy	70	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-7	1	14.2	15.6	-1.42	16.1	17.5	-1.42
Brandon Rush	27	27	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	6	-25	13.9	14.8	-0.94	14.3	17.2	-2.94
Danny Granger	72	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	6	-25	15.2	12.3	2.82	15.4	19.9	-4.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 97, GSW 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
POR 93, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	95.4%
UTA 103, LAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	95.4%