NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	102		Excitement	5.9 [616]		MVP	Andray Blatche (WAS): +17.1%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	1.6 [197]		LVP	Drew Gooden (DAL): -14.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andray Blatche	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.03	-0.02	14	62%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Randy Foye	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.03	14	63%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	21	57%	0.14	3	-0.10	9	89%	0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.00	17	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Brendan Haywood	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	25	54%	0.13	3	-0.06	13	92%	0.04
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Quinton Ross	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	8	62%	0.08	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.09	12	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	15	34%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	1.8	36.1	15.0	24.3	3.4	29.2	138.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +41.0%

WAS +3.8%

WAS +6.4%

DAL -0.1%

DAL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DAL	NBA	WAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	14.7	15.3	109.7	98.9	106.0
season	15.7	15.2		102.6	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.3		104.6	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.7	14.1	15.3	20.2	16.4
DAL	16.8	14.1	14.0	14.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	59	59	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.19	16	-5	21	16.6	16.1	0.49	14.2	15.6	-1.37
Fabricio Oberto	33	34	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.07	15	-4	19	16.4	16.4	-0.01	15.1	14.5	0.66
Andray Blatche	66	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	2	7	17.2	14.4	2.75	15.0	14.0	1.02
Mike Miller	42	41	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	-1	13	16.6	16.2	0.45	16.0	13.7	2.25
Gilbert Arenas	75	73	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	3	5	16.1	17.7	-1.57	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Brendan Haywood	75	71	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	10	-9	15.8	18.9	-3.16	14.7	15.0	-0.29
Caron Butler	73	74	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	10	-9	16.3	16.6	-0.26	14.7	14.7	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	35	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	12	-13	16.6	16.3	0.28	14.1	15.1	-0.94
JaVale McGee	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	11	-11	9.5	16.5	-7.05	10.0	14.8	-4.83
Dominic McGuire	5	5	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	17	-23	17.8	16.3	1.48	10.8	15.0	-4.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kris Humphries	10	9	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-14	17	13.5	14.9	-1.38	14.0	16.7	-2.65
Quinton Ross	36	35	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.18	7	-18	25	15.1	14.5	0.58	17.1	15.9	1.19
Dirk Nowitzki	75	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-8	5	15.0	13.7	1.25	16.6	15.7	0.83
Drew Gooden	30	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	-2	-7	14.4	14.9	-0.54	16.2	16.5	-0.35
Erick Dampier	53	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-7	3	15.4	13.9	1.49	16.1	16.8	-0.69
Jose Juan Barea	46	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	1	-13	13.3	16.2	-2.89	17.2	15.5	1.69
Jason Terry	73	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	0	-11	14.5	15.6	-1.07	15.9	18.3	-2.41
Jason Kidd	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	-2	-7	14.8	14.5	0.36	16.7	15.6	1.11
Shawn Marion	67	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.10	-17	6	-23	15.3	13.3	1.99	16.1	17.0	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.21,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.03,0.1,0.15,0	94.2%
CLE 102, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	94.0%
SAS 92, MIN 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%