NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	104		Excitement	6.2 [589]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +26.8%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	2.7 [684]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (UTA): -23.5%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.00	0.00	13	68%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	10	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kyle Korver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	5	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.01	0.09	12	55%	-0.01	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.01
Ronnie Brewer	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	45%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	10	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	12	39%	-0.06	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.03
Carlos Boozer	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.16,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.18	-0.05	0.01	23	31%	-0.18	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.22	0.06	0.01	14	82%	0.29	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	6	80%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	3	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Renaldo Balkman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	8	57%	0.06	3	-0.09	14	93%	0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	3	-0.05	6	83%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	25	40%	-0.03	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	3.6	35.8	19.7	34.3	3.8	42.3	166.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +62.5%

DEN +2.0%

UTA -12.3%

UTA -3.6%

DEN +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	13.2	15.5	100.0	107.5	106.4
season	15.3	14.4		107.7	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.0		105.2	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.9	14.3	14.4	11.9	14.3
DEN	13.8	12.4	11.8	14.8	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mehmet Okur	73	75	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.31	8	-18	26	14.1	14.6	-0.50	13.1	13.5	-0.38
Ronnie Brewer	46	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-10	10	15.2	13.5	1.64	12.8	13.5	-0.79
Carlos Boozer	69	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-14	18	14.3	14.1	0.18	13.8	12.1	1.69
Brevin Knight	17	18	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-7	4	15.4	14.0	1.38	11.9	13.4	-1.55
Matt Harpring	12	12	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	1	-12	14.4	14.2	0.18	10.2	13.6	-3.30
CJ Miles	71	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-10	10	14.7	13.4	1.31	13.0	13.6	-0.56
Andrei Kirilenko	56	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-5	0	13.2	15.5	-2.26	13.3	13.0	0.31
Deron Williams	87	88	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.14	-7	-3	-4	14.0	15.4	-1.38	13.4	11.9	1.55
Kyle Korver	38	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	4	-18	13.3	14.8	-1.57	13.3	13.1	0.20
Paul Millsap	51	54	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	0.05	-22	12	-34	14.8	13.7	1.15	13.6	12.7	0.88

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	76	75	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.10	19	-9	28	13.4	12.7	0.62	13.9	15.3	-1.41
Chris Andersen	69	70	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-8	26	12.4	14.7	-2.34	13.4	16.1	-2.76
Carmelo Anthony	90	87	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	1	8	12.9	14.9	-2.00	14.4	13.8	0.59
Anthony Carter	39	38	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.01	10	0	10	13.4	13.1	0.28	13.4	14.8	-1.40
Nene	79	76	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	7	-4	13.4	12.4	0.99	14.2	14.5	-0.33
Chauncey Billups	71	71	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	10	-10	12.9	13.7	-0.76	14.2	14.4	-0.15
Linas Kleiza	32	33	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	4	2	13.9	12.9	1.04	14.6	14.1	0.51
Renaldo Balkman	11	11	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	9	-8	15.7	12.9	2.84	13.6	14.3	-0.70
Kenyon Martin	37	35	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	17	-24	13.5	13.0	0.51	15.9	13.4	2.45
Dahntay Jones	26	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.11	-9	19	-28	13.1	13.2	-0.14	17.0	13.4	3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.83,0.83,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.83,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 83, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	94.7%
MIN 101, SAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.89,0.77,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
PHI 72, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%