NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	129		Excitement	9.4 [96]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +43.8%
Toronto Raptors	134		Comeback	4.1 [306]		LVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): -34.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.38	0.20	0.23	0.05	26	63%	0.38	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	13	72%	0.36	4	-0.20	6	83%	0.03
Joakim Noah	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	10	80%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.06	0.03	10	64%	0.13	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Linton Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	8	50%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	-0.35	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.35	-0.03	-0.28	0.03	11	42%	-0.31	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.41,0.44	0.44	0.08	0.32	-0.04	20	61%	0.48	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.35	0.35	0.08	0.25	-0.02	21	58%	0.45	3	-0.10	11	100%	0.09
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	10	73%	0.12	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Roko Leni Ukic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.08	-0.08	0.11	-0.12	0.07	11	85%	0.12	4	-0.20	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	29.9	18.5	24.3	2.5	46.4	2.4	19.3	172.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +28.2%

TOR +29.4%

TOR +4.5%

CHI -18.1%

TOR +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	13.5	15.2	15.5	118.3	119.6	106.4
season	14.8	15.1		106.3	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		108.0	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	15.2	14.0	16.1	9.9	12.0	13.5
TOR	14.2	16.0	15.2	15.6	15.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	73	78	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-11	17	13.0	14.5	-1.43	15.4	14.8	0.64
Linton Johnson	12	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	1	-7	14.3	13.4	0.92	14.0	15.4	-1.38
Derrick Rose	87	90	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-11	17	13.1	15.0	-1.86	15.7	13.2	2.56
Tim Thomas	26	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	3	-11	13.2	13.6	-0.37	15.0	15.3	-0.37
Tyrus Thomas	77	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-2	-1	13.6	13.3	0.28	15.0	15.9	-0.92
John Salmons	58	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	4	-13	15.4	11.3	4.10	15.5	14.9	0.67
Kirk Hinrich	77	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-5	5	12.6	15.8	-3.25	15.2	15.2	-0.00
Ben Gordon	93	96	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	1	-7	13.4	14.4	-1.08	14.7	18.4	-3.66
Joakim Noah	42	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.34	-5	0	-5	14.4	13.0	1.37	15.6	15.0	0.54

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	50	48	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-6	17	14.7	15.7	-0.94	14.0	13.1	0.87
Anthony Parker	84	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	0	5	14.5	17.4	-2.87	13.8	12.7	1.08
Chris Bosh	92	89	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	0	5	15.1	15.8	-0.68	13.2	15.0	-1.88
Roko Leni Ukic	26	25	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	-5	15	15.5	15.2	0.39	13.5	13.5	0.01
Shawn Marion	78	75	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	7	-9	14.9	16.1	-1.22	14.1	12.2	1.86
Joey Graham	31	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-3	11	15.8	15.0	0.74	12.6	13.9	-1.26
Jose Calderon	86	84	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.36	-5	10	-15	15.2	15.5	-0.39	13.5	13.5	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	79	79	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.34	-6	11	-17	15.8	14.0	1.80	13.7	13.1	0.62
Jason Kapono	34	33	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	6	-7	17.2	14.4	2.86	12.2	14.1	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.62,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.79,0.83,0.72,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 88, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.46,0.53,0.37,0.06,0.42,1	91.4%
HOU 101, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.84,1	90.2%
NYK 129, SAC 135	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.92,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.43,0.92,1	90.1%