NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	7.9 [245]		MVP	Troy Murphy (IND): +21.5%
Indiana Pacers	98		Comeback	2.3 [381]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -24.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.00	-0.03	20	65%	0.20	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	67%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Joakim Noah	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	42%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Tyrus Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.02	10	67%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Brad Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	5	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Kirk Hinrich	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	7	21%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16	-0.05	-0.06	0.05	12	43%	-0.11	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.07
Derrick Rose	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.00	9	15%	-0.20	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	0.00	16	66%	0.28	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.04
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.05	0.15	-0.01	21	43%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.03	13	57%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.10	0.02	13	55%	-0.00	2	-0.09	3	33%	-0.04
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	8	27%	-0.09	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	27.2	15.0	26.5	2.0	34.2	132.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +16.2%

IND +4.4%

IND +18.1%

IND +11.6%

CHI -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.5	97.8	104.3	106.4
season	14.8	14.1		106.3	106.5
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.7	14.1	16.5	15.5	14.9
IND	14.0	17.8	17.8	14.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	15	15	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.08	12	-19	31	14.3	15.0	-0.67	16.0	15.9	0.11
John Salmons	51	52	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.10	7	-14	21	13.4	16.7	-3.28	15.3	16.6	-1.25
Brad Miller	40	41	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.18	9	-16	25	13.3	16.1	-2.71	16.2	15.7	0.47
Derrick Rose	55	54	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-6	5	15.8	13.6	2.22	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Kirk Hinrich	43	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-7	7	14.0	15.7	-1.70	16.4	15.4	1.04
Joakim Noah	59	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.12	-15	8	-23	15.8	13.3	2.47	16.6	14.7	1.85
Tyrus Thomas	59	59	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.24	-12	5	-17	15.5	13.8	1.68	15.8	16.0	-0.20
Ben Gordon	76	77	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.27	-14	7	-21	15.0	14.4	0.66	16.0	15.6	0.39
Luol Deng	67	68	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.33	-21	14	-35	15.4	13.5	1.93	15.3	17.5	-2.15

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	74	73	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.28	21	-14	35	15.5	17.3	-1.77	15.0	14.6	0.37
Troy Murphy	72	73	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-7	21	16.1	15.2	0.88	15.6	12.1	3.49
T.J. Ford	71	72	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.30	10	-3	13	15.9	16.0	-0.13	15.5	12.7	2.81
Jarrett Jack	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.29	8	-1	9	16.0	15.4	0.57	15.3	13.1	2.24
Jeff Foster	45	43	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	6	-5	14.2	17.5	-3.35	15.1	14.7	0.37
Roy Hibbert	38	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	2	3	17.8	14.6	3.25	15.3	14.6	0.72
Rasho Nesterovic	11	11	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	6	-5	16.4	15.8	0.52	12.6	15.2	-2.56
Travis Diener	23	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	10	-13	16.0	15.9	0.13	12.7	15.5	-2.81
Maceo Baston	19	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	14	-21	15.3	16.1	-0.74	12.1	15.5	-3.47
Brandon Rush	41	40	-0.44	0.94	-1.37	0.00	-15	22	-37	16.3	15.6	0.69	13.8	15.7	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.72,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.71,0.67,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 74, PHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.62,0.54,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.45,0.63,0.68,0.96,1	92.4%
NYK 105, IND 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.96,1	92.3%
DAL 90, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.83,1	92.2%