NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	7.0 [431]		MVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): +31.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	2.0 [204]		LVP	Richard Jefferson (MIL): -25.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.32	0.22	0.10	-0.00	11	92%	0.35	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.06
Michael Beasley	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.05	0.01	11	78%	0.22	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	13	64%	0.15	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	13	54%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Chris Quinn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.25	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.25	-0.18	-0.08	-0.00	20	34%	-0.10	4	-0.16	10	70%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.01	8	76%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	21	58%	0.12	5	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	21	38%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.25	-0.25	-0.04	-0.21	0.00	11	50%	-0.08	3	-0.18	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	26.6	16.3	23.3	1.8	39.0	134.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.5%

MIA +14.6%

MIL -12.4%

MIA +8.9%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	17.3	14.6	15.5	110.9	112.5	106.4
season	16.0	15.0		105.9	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.6	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	18.8	18.3	16.0	17.3
MIL	15.1	14.3	15.1	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	75	72	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-1	5	16.6	20.6	-4.03	14.4	15.9	-1.51
Daequan Cook	53	50	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-5	13	16.2	18.8	-2.54	15.0	14.2	0.84
Shawn Marion	76	73	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.30	4	-1	5	16.7	20.1	-3.34	14.2	17.0	-2.85
Jamaal Magloire	34	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.00	14	-11	25	17.9	17.0	0.87	14.1	14.9	-0.88
Udonis Haslem	56	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	2	-1	16.7	18.2	-1.55	14.0	15.7	-1.70
Michael Beasley	50	48	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	-5	13	18.3	16.1	2.22	16.2	12.8	3.41
Chris Quinn	60	57	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	0	3	18.4	15.2	3.25	14.9	14.1	0.83
Yakhouba Diawara	17	15	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.28	-7	10	-17	14.6	17.9	-3.33	11.1	15.4	-4.22
Joel Anthony	22	22	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.18	-8	11	-19	19.7	16.5	3.18	16.9	13.9	3.03
Mario Chalmers	17	17	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.16	-12	15	-27	20.1	16.7	3.38	14.7	14.6	0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Alexander	36	40	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.36	16	-19	35	13.7	15.3	-1.59	16.4	18.0	-1.60
Francisco Elson	5	6	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	-0.04	1	-4	5	13.6	14.7	-1.10	20.8	17.1	3.78
Andrew Bogut	65	68	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.42	11	-14	25	15.0	13.7	1.21	18.4	14.1	4.36
Richard Jefferson	71	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.42	6	-9	15	14.5	15.2	-0.67	16.9	18.7	-1.81
Ramon Sessions	13	13	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.08	-11	8	-19	16.3	14.3	1.96	19.3	17.0	2.33
Luke Ridnour	78	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.52	9	-12	21	14.4	16.4	-1.99	17.2	18.4	-1.23
Dan Gadzuric	15	15	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.19	-18	15	-33	16.3	14.3	1.97	15.7	17.6	-1.88
Charlie Villanueva	23	21	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.08	-16	13	-29	16.1	14.1	1.96	19.4	16.7	2.69
Luc Mbah a Moute	59	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	14.4	15.2	-0.80	16.5	19.0	-2.52
Michael Redd	75	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	7	-17	14.4	16.1	-1.69	17.1	18.9	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.37,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, LAL 92	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.08,0	92.8%
CLE 102, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	92.7%
MIN 97, SAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.08,0	92.6%