NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	6.4 [547]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +10.0%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	1.5 [1039]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -18.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06	0.13	-0.02	0.05	12	61%	0.06	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.06
Aaron Gray	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.05	0.03	16	60%	0.06	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	57%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	47%	0.01	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.02	16	44%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	8	6%	-0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.01	16	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	6	72%	0.10	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	100%	0.11	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	15	54%	0.10	2	-0.05	11	36%	-0.08
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	11	54%	-0.01	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.19	-0.03	-0.04	16	28%	-0.08	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	29.4	15.8	26.3	2.7	42.3	146.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.5%

ORL +9.2%

ORL +14.4%

ORL +5.9%

CHI -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.4	15.5	93.0	99.0	106.4
season	14.8	15.3		106.3	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	14.4	19.2	12.0	14.8
ORL	13.4	14.4	14.1	15.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	24	24	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-7	11	14.7	14.9	-0.19	14.0	14.6	-0.62
Ben Gordon	68	67	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.52	20	-23	43	13.8	17.0	-3.22	15.2	12.7	2.49
Kirk Hinrich	70	69	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.46	14	-17	31	14.0	16.7	-2.75	15.2	12.5	2.70
Joakim Noah	13	11	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	2	-7	13.0	15.1	-2.08	13.0	14.6	-1.60
Luol Deng	54	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.02	-8	5	-13	15.4	14.2	1.18	13.6	15.4	-1.72
Andres Nocioni	53	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-6	9	14.0	15.7	-1.76	15.2	13.6	1.58
Drew Gooden	63	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-1	-1	15.2	14.1	1.16	14.9	13.7	1.20
Thabo Sefolosha	38	35	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.04	-17	14	-31	16.1	14.0	2.05	13.1	15.2	-2.09
Tyrus Thomas	37	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	13	-29	16.6	13.8	2.79	12.8	15.3	-2.46
Derrick Rose	80	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	5	-13	15.2	13.3	1.83	14.4	14.5	-0.06

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	82	84	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.33	9	-6	15	14.1	16.1	-1.94	15.1	13.1	2.08
Hedo Turkoglu	79	80	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	1	1	14.7	13.2	1.54	14.3	16.7	-2.36
Dwight Howard	75	78	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	1	1	14.7	13.3	1.43	14.9	14.4	0.57
Mickael Pietrus	29	33	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	-10	23	12.9	15.1	-2.13	17.2	13.6	3.59
Jameer Nelson	65	67	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	1	1	14.5	14.2	0.26	15.4	13.6	1.84
Keith Bogans	54	56	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	5	-7	14.9	13.9	1.01	14.6	15.1	-0.54
Anthony Johnson	32	33	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	2	-1	14.2	14.5	-0.26	13.6	15.4	-1.84
Courtney Lee	42	43	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	9	-15	14.6	14.3	0.26	13.9	15.5	-1.58
Tony Battie	27	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.12	-6	9	-15	14.1	14.6	-0.48	13.8	15.2	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 89, DET 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.6,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
NOK 99, WAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%
NJN 99, NOH 103	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.97,1,0.99,1	92.9%