NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	8.5 [173]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +17.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	86		Comeback	8.9 [48]		LVP	Quinton Ross (MEM): -35.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	18	57%	0.21	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.05
Anthony Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Battie	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	64%	0.15	4	-0.17	8	75%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.04	0.01	12	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	54%	0.07	5	-0.13	8	50%	-0.04
Mickael Pietrus	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	0.03	-0.18	0.00	5	58%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.06

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,0.06,-0.01,-0.12,0.18	0.18	-0.02	0.21	0.01	26	48%	0.25	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.05
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	1	89%	0.14	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.12	0.00	3	50%	0.13	0	0.00	6	67%	0.03
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.11	2	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	61%	0.06	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	9	39%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.35	-0.35	-0.09	-0.26	0.00	8	12%	-0.35	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.9	2.6	34.3	17.4	27.6	2.5	39.2	153.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -18.0%

MEM +15.3%

MEM +27.6%

MEM +25.2%

ORL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.7	16.8	15.5	92.3	93.5	106.4
season	15.3	16.1		107.3	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.8		107.6	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	15.5	16.0	14.4	14.7
MEM	16.4	17.2	14.0	19.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	31	30	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.05	4	-6	10	18.3	12.8	5.47	16.5	16.9	-0.37
JJ Redick	21	20	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-3	4	16.8	14.1	2.72	16.4	16.8	-0.38
Tony Battie	30	30	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.05	3	-5	8	18.4	12.9	5.50	14.4	17.9	-3.54
Mickael Pietrus	32	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	1	-4	14.5	14.8	-0.28	16.4	17.0	-0.55
Rashard Lewis	78	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.41	-1	-1	0	14.1	18.2	-4.01	16.7	17.0	-0.29
Hedo Turkoglu	78	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-2	2	14.3	17.1	-2.76	17.2	14.5	2.73
Keith Bogans	51	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	0	-2	14.6	14.9	-0.33	16.4	17.1	-0.71
Dwight Howard	74	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.42	-6	4	-10	13.8	18.6	-4.76	17.7	12.4	5.39
Jameer Nelson	60	62	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	4	-10	12.8	18.3	-5.47	16.9	16.5	0.37

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	41	41	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.51	11	-9	20	18.4	15.4	3.05	15.2	14.3	0.88
Hakim Warrick	55	56	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-2	6	17.2	16.1	1.07	16.1	12.4	3.71
Marc Gasol	45	45	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.50	3	-1	4	18.1	15.5	2.62	13.2	16.2	-3.04
Rudy Gay	84	83	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.44	3	-1	4	16.4	20.7	-4.38	14.7	15.0	-0.31
Quinton Ross	33	32	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	-1	4	19.7	15.1	4.55	16.1	14.0	2.08
Darko Milicic	25	25	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	-5	12	16.3	16.9	-0.65	15.0	14.6	0.39
O.J. Mayo	67	67	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	4	-6	15.8	19.3	-3.53	14.1	16.4	-2.31
Mike Conley	51	50	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.07	-9	11	-20	15.4	18.4	-3.05	14.3	15.2	-0.88
Darrell Arthur	59	56	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.09	-10	12	-22	15.5	18.9	-3.41	14.4	15.2	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 88, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.42,1	91.9%
MIL 94, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.23,0.21,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.73,0.81,0.54,0.67,0.74,1	91.4%
ATL 95, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.41,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	90.5%