NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	96		Excitement	5.8 [621]		MVP	Hakim Warrick (MEM): +11.5%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.2 [933]		LVP	Stephane Lasme (MIA): -11.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.03	11	55%	0.11	0	0.00	9	67%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	12	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.06
Juan Carlos Navarro	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	12	54%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Mike Conley	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Darko Milicic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	18	34%	-0.05	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	-0.00	0.02	13	73%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	61%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kasib Powell	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	12	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Ahearn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	16	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	15	47%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	12	20%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Stephane Lasme	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	7	45%	0.01	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	30.1	15.7	27.8	1.8	31.2	133.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +26.0%

MEM +6.2%

MEM +8.0%

MEM +11.5%

MIA -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.7	15.4	107.9	102.2	105.7
season	14.9	16.0		103.3	99.0
opponent	15.4	14.9		108.3	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.4	13.6	17.8	16.9	15.6
MIA	16.9	17.7	14.3	18.2	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	27	28	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.02	20	-15	35	12.9	16.8	-3.93	18.8	15.8	3.05
Casey Jacobsen	39	40	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.03	21	-16	37	14.2	16.8	-2.58	16.2	17.2	-0.96
Kyle Lowry	58	57	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-7	19	14.7	17.5	-2.80	16.9	16.5	0.36
Juan Carlos Navarro	58	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	1	3	15.8	15.3	0.57	17.3	15.7	1.58
Andre Brown	46	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	8	-11	16.2	15.1	1.08	16.0	17.5	-1.50
Jason Collins	24	24	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	2	1	17.3	15.0	2.28	15.9	17.0	-1.17
Mike Conley	62	64	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.28	-6	11	-17	16.4	14.0	2.39	16.1	18.3	-2.21
Darko Milicic	19	18	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	0	5	12.3	16.5	-4.28	19.7	16.0	3.75
Hakim Warrick	66	66	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.29	-11	16	-27	16.2	13.9	2.37	16.2	18.3	-2.18
Rudy Gay	46	44	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.42	-20	25	-45	17.6	13.5	4.05	16.7	16.7	-0.01

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephane Lasme	47	48	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.33	13	-18	31	17.1	16.3	0.75	16.6	14.4	2.21
Blake Ahearn	8	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-5	5	16.9	16.7	0.16	19.6	15.3	4.28
Mark Blount	50	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.39	9	-14	23	17.3	16.0	1.30	16.7	14.1	2.61
Chris Quinn	65	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.44	9	-14	23	16.8	16.6	0.20	16.6	12.7	3.85
Daequan Cook	45	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.22	0	-5	5	16.7	16.8	-0.13	13.7	17.4	-3.69
Jason Williams	18	17	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	6	-17	16.4	16.8	-0.36	11.1	16.7	-5.65
Joel Anthony	36	36	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.03	-14	9	-23	15.6	17.5	-1.83	14.6	16.3	-1.71
Kasib Powell	63	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	4	-13	17.3	15.4	1.85	15.9	14.8	1.09
Ricky Davis	75	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	16.5	18.0	-1.51	16.1	12.9	3.20
Earl Barron	38	36	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.03	-19	14	-33	16.2	17.1	-0.86	14.0	16.7	-2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.3,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.06,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 105, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.23,0.31,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0	94.5%
IND 87, NYK 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
NJN 103, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.17,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.15,0	94.3%