NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Excitement	8.7 [132]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +47.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	105		Comeback	6.7 [154]		LVP	Wally Szczerbiak (CLE): -20.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.41	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.41	0.19	0.20	-0.01	24	66%	0.52	2	-0.12	5	40%	-0.07
Damon Jones	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27	0.15	0.12	0.00	5	120%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	6	83%	0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dwayne Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	44%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	5	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.16,-0.2	-0.10	-0.14	-0.04	18	35%	-0.07	2	-0.14	1	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.47	0.47	0.10	0.36	-0.01	17	56%	0.47	0	0.00	11	91%	0.02
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.3	0.30	0.18	0.12	0.00	22	69%	0.46	4	-0.17	10	100%	0.10
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	9	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	15	40%	0.05	1	-0.09	10	60%	-0.10
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	31.7	15.8	24.3	2.4	42.0	143.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE -19.1%

MIL +41.3%

MIL +15.5%

MIL +14.8%

CLE -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	14.9	15.4	113.3	118.0	105.7
season	16.4	15.8		104.0	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		110.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.3	17.5	17.1	19.0	17.2
MIL	16.0	14.4	17.1	12.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	51	48	0.31	-0.81	1.13	0.20	4	-7	11	18.7	15.3	3.46	15.9	13.8	2.02
Dwayne Jones	13	14	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.05	5	-8	13	16.7	17.3	-0.65	13.8	15.1	-1.35
Devin Brown	40	38	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.14	-2	-1	-1	17.8	16.8	1.04	14.3	15.4	-1.01
Damon Jones	40	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-1	-1	17.7	16.8	0.91	14.2	15.4	-1.25
Delonte West	57	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.37	1	-4	5	15.8	19.7	-3.82	14.9	15.0	-0.17
Wally Szczerbiak	70	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	1	-5	17.9	14.9	3.01	14.8	15.3	-0.48
Anderson Varejao	49	51	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.54	-2	-1	-1	16.9	17.7	-0.81	14.1	16.1	-1.97
LeBron James	70	72	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.56	-2	-1	-1	16.2	20.7	-4.51	15.3	13.2	2.16
Ben Wallace	60	59	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.37	-13	10	-23	17.4	17.0	0.42	15.7	13.4	2.24

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	63	63	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.46	14	-11	25	14.4	16.3	-1.90	16.0	20.1	-4.04
Desmond Mason	70	70	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.48	10	-7	17	15.3	13.4	1.97	16.3	20.6	-4.38
Mo Williams	86	86	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-4	11	14.8	19.7	-4.91	17.2	18.0	-0.79
Michael Redd	77	79	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.42	6	-3	9	15.1	13.5	1.64	16.5	22.5	-6.04
Andrew Bogut	72	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	15.5	12.6	2.88	16.7	19.7	-3.03
Dan Gadzuric	17	17	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	5	-7	12.6	15.5	-2.88	19.7	16.7	3.03
Royal Ivey	15	15	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	10	-17	14.7	15.0	-0.23	21.3	16.4	4.91
Charlie Bell	19	20	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.07	-7	10	-17	13.4	15.3	-1.97	20.6	16.3	4.38
Yi Jianlian	26	27	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.05	-11	14	-25	16.3	14.4	1.90	20.1	16.0	4.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.78,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.13,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.54,0.67,0.98,1	92.0%
ATL 96, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.72,1	91.1%
CHI 101, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.84,0.84,1	90.7%