NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	117		Excitement	10.2 [52]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +52.9%
Golden State Warriors	119		Comeback	5.8 [186]		LVP	Matt Barnes (GSW): -10.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.14,0.41	0.07	0.32	-0.01	13	59%	0.48	2	-0.07	13	92%	0.18
Ray Allen	0.34	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.29	0.08	0.03	17	84%	0.34	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Tony Allen	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.09	0.00	10	62%	0.20	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.03
Glen Davis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	1	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.02,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	8	41%	-0.03	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.07
Kevin Garnett	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	16	45%	0.09	4	-0.19	6	50%	-0.04

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.53	0.53	0.03	0.48	-0.02	20	57%	0.63	5	-0.10	11	73%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.08	0.15	0.00	15	61%	0.28	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	9	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	14	64%	0.13	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.02	21	49%	0.12	2	-0.09	11	73%	-0.01
Austin Croshere	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	4	36%	-0.02	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	33.0	15.5	29.3	1.8	50.1	155.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +25.1%

BOS -17.9%

GSW +32.0%

GSW +3.7%

GSW +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	GSW	NBA	BOS	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	13.4	15.4	110.4	112.3	105.7
season	15.6	13.5		108.0	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.9		107.9	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.9	13.5	14.5	12.3	13.8
GSW	11.7	13.6	14.3	13.9	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	38	38	0.50	-1.00	1.49	0.20	10	-12	22	13.6	13.9	-0.33	14.2	12.9	1.34
Leon Powe	29	29	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.10	5	-7	12	15.4	13.2	2.18	13.6	13.3	0.29
Kendrick Perkins	50	49	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-7	12	13.7	13.8	-0.10	13.0	13.7	-0.63
Glen Davis	11	11	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.07	2	-4	6	12.9	13.9	-0.99	16.0	13.1	2.93
James Posey	38	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.14	-12	10	-22	16.5	12.3	4.26	13.7	13.2	0.50
Ray Allen	85	84	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.38	5	-7	12	13.8	13.9	-0.14	13.7	12.1	1.62
Kevin Garnett	71	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.60	-1	-1	0	12.6	16.1	-3.51	13.4	13.3	0.18
Paul Pierce	86	85	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.52	-4	2	-6	13.8	13.8	-0.01	12.8	15.9	-3.15
Tony Allen	54	55	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.58	-8	6	-14	12.9	14.7	-1.77	13.3	13.4	-0.07
Rajon Rondo	68	69	-0.97	0.47	-1.45	-0.62	-12	10	-22	13.8	13.7	0.09	12.8	14.5	-1.70

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	89	87	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.64	8	-6	14	13.3	13.5	-0.18	14.1	12.4	1.74
Mickael Pietrus	78	81	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.31	13	-11	24	13.5	13.0	0.46	14.4	11.8	2.61
Monta Ellis	98	98	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-4	10	13.3	14.9	-1.62	13.6	15.6	-1.98
Al Harrington	72	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-5	12	13.4	13.3	0.17	14.1	13.1	0.99
Baron Davis	102	102	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	4	-6	13.3	16.0	-2.73	13.8	13.7	0.04
Austin Croshere	6	6	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	1	0	9.5	13.6	-4.11	9.3	14.1	-4.73
Matt Barnes	28	26	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	8	-14	13.7	13.3	0.46	13.2	14.0	-0.85
Chris Webber	44	45	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	10	-18	13.8	13.1	0.75	13.6	13.9	-0.30
Kelenna Azubuike	13	13	-0.44	0.94	-1.37	-0.17	-9	11	-20	13.8	13.3	0.53	11.2	14.2	-3.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.19,0.28,0.47,0.66,0.9,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.71,0.91,0.99,1	91.1%
DEN 93, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.72,0.97,1,1	90.8%
DET 93, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.38,0.78,0.91,0.96,1	90.3%