NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	98		Excitement	7.9 [255]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +33.0%
San Antonio Spurs	104		Comeback	3.6 [306]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (UTA): -15.7%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.25	0.10	0.17	0.02	15	67%	0.34	3	-0.09	12	75%	-0.00
CJ Miles	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.06	-0.00	2	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	11	64%	0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	5	58%	-0.03	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Mehmet Okur	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	7	43%	-0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.17,-0.08,-0.16	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	23	54%	0.17	9	-0.32	6	67%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.33	0.33	0.13	0.20	-0.00	21	61%	0.47	3	-0.14	19	89%	0.09
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.08	0.03	8	83%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	12	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.06	0.00	14	42%	0.10	5	-0.17	10	60%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.5	33.7	18.0	29.6	3.0	48.0	161.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +2.4%

SAS +22.6%

SAS +1.6%

SAS +24.5%

UTA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.4	15.4	106.5	109.5	105.7
season	15.5	16.5		111.2	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.0		100.5	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	14.4	15.9	16.0	15.5	15.4
SAS	15.6	15.4	16.0	14.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	19	20	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.08	1	-7	8	18.0	14.8	3.22	16.3	15.1	1.19
Matt Harpring	25	26	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.03	1	-7	8	17.7	14.6	3.12	14.6	15.6	-1.02
Jason Hart	13	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	-3	0	15.5	15.4	0.02	14.9	15.4	-0.59
CJ Miles	23	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	-1	-4	17.2	14.9	2.30	13.2	16.1	-2.87
Paul Millsap	16	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-1	-4	19.6	14.6	4.98	16.9	15.0	1.93
Carlos Boozer	78	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-3	0	14.6	20.4	-5.88	14.8	18.4	-3.52
Ronnie Brewer	69	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-5	4	14.9	17.2	-2.30	16.1	13.2	2.87
Deron Williams	79	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-3	0	15.4	15.5	-0.02	15.4	14.9	0.59
Mehmet Okur	71	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	-1	-4	14.8	17.6	-2.75	15.3	15.5	-0.22
Andrei Kirilenko	67	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	1	-8	14.6	17.7	-3.12	15.6	14.6	1.02

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	62	60	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.33	12	-6	18	15.6	15.0	0.59	15.2	15.9	-0.66
Matt Bonner	68	65	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.40	7	-1	8	14.9	16.4	-1.47	14.6	17.5	-2.88
Manu Ginobili	69	68	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	0	6	15.8	14.2	1.66	15.6	14.9	0.72
Tony Parker	73	73	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	-2	10	14.3	18.7	-4.38	15.3	16.1	-0.83
Michael Finley	55	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	6	-6	16.2	14.2	2.00	15.8	14.9	0.94
Brent Barry	20	17	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.04	3	3	0	13.3	15.9	-2.61	16.4	15.2	1.19
Bruce Bowen	51	48	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	4	-2	14.5	16.3	-1.75	14.4	16.6	-2.28
Jacque Vaughn	17	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	7	-8	20.0	14.3	5.65	16.4	15.2	1.12
Robert Horry	27	27	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	7	-8	16.4	14.9	1.47	17.5	14.6	2.88
Francisco Elson	33	32	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.01	-6	12	-18	15.0	15.6	-0.59	15.9	15.2	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.67,0.69,0.85,0.84,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 106, PHX 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.18,0.29,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.4,0.66,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.85,1	92.4%
MEM 80, PHX 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.36,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.74,1	92.2%
UTA 107, SAC 117	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.96,1	92.0%