NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	108		Excitement	7.2 [339]		MVP	Jason Kapono (TOR): +43.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	111		Comeback	2.7 [605]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -9.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.44	0.14	0.30	-0.00	11	77%	0.44	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.22	0.21	0.01	0.01	25	61%	0.27	1	-0.05	17	88%	0.05
Darrick Martin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	9	70%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.00	8	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	10	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.04,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.35	0.35	0.07	0.29	0.01	29	56%	0.49	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.06
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.16	0.15	-0.01	10	85%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	12	63%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	13	62%	0.15	6	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	26.4	15.6	25.8	1.8	39.0	137.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +54.5%

TOR -13.1%

CLE +27.7%

TOR -16.9%

TOR -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CLE	NBA	TOR	CLE	NBA
this game	15.2	16.8	15.4	121.3	122.0	105.7
season	15.6	16.4		108.5	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.7		104.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.4	15.9	17.2	13.3	15.2
CLE	16.2	16.1	15.5	19.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamario Moon	57	61	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.25	9	-12	21	15.5	14.7	0.77	18.2	13.9	4.38
Darrick Martin	15	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	1	-5	14.1	15.4	-1.26	15.1	17.2	-2.11
Kris Humphries	13	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	3	-9	13.3	15.5	-2.19	16.5	16.8	-0.31
Andrea Bargnani	63	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-3	3	16.4	12.3	4.11	15.9	18.7	-2.81
Anthony Parker	61	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-8	13	14.9	15.9	-0.99	15.9	18.9	-2.97
Chris Bosh	76	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.45	3	-6	9	15.5	13.3	2.19	16.8	16.5	0.31
Jose Calderon	74	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.47	1	-4	5	15.4	14.1	1.26	17.2	15.1	2.11
Jason Kapono	45	46	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	5	-13	14.3	16.1	-1.76	17.5	16.1	1.37
Carlos Delfino	41	40	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.31	-15	12	-27	14.4	15.9	-1.51	16.6	16.9	-0.32

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	61	60	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-12	27	17.5	15.4	2.09	14.9	15.8	-0.96
LeBron James	84	83	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.39	7	-4	11	16.7	17.7	-0.99	15.2	14.8	0.37
Devin Brown	39	39	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-4	11	15.8	17.6	-1.76	13.9	16.2	-2.28
Daniel Gibson	80	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.41	0	3	-3	17.2	13.9	3.29	15.4	13.3	2.12
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	57	57	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.19	3	0	3	17.7	15.3	2.45	15.5	14.7	0.77
Sasha Pavlovic	44	44	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.32	-5	8	-13	16.7	16.9	-0.23	15.3	15.1	0.18
Eric Snow	18	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	4	-5	15.4	17.2	-1.76	13.9	15.5	-1.59
Ira Newble	15	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	9	-15	14.5	17.2	-2.72	14.3	15.3	-1.02
Drew Gooden	57	54	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	8	-13	16.5	17.3	-0.74	16.3	13.5	2.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.5,0.66,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.69,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 95, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.34,0.43,0.63,0.73,0.85,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	92.6%
VAN 75, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	92.2%
ATL 100, WAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.59,0.81,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.93,0.92,1	91.8%