NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Excitement	9.8 [60]		MVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): +13.9%
Sacramento Kings	100		Comeback	1.8 [688]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -23.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	7	74%	0.14	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Corey Brewer	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	60%	0.11	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.09
Rashad McCants	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.02,0.02	-0.07	0.09	-0.01	14	52%	0.22	6	-0.20	3	67%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	9	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	44%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Ryan Gomes	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	8	21%	-0.11	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Al Jefferson	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.19	0.00	16	47%	-0.09	3	-0.15	4	75%	-0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.09	0.02	17	57%	0.18	2	-0.04	17	71%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	13	59%	0.16	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.09	0.00	9	41%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	4	45%	0.01	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	9	45%	0.01	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.32,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.13	0.00	12	40%	-0.13	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.6	32.3	15.7	32.4	1.7	38.6	148.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +4.0%

SAC +21.5%

SAC +14.8%

SAC +9.2%

SAC +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.7	14.6	15.4	102.2	107.5	105.7
season	15.9	14.9		102.2	105.6
opponent	15.0	15.0		108.0	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	17.5	17.4	16.6	16.7
SAC	15.1	15.2	12.1	16.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	36	37	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-9	11	14.9	18.0	-3.12	14.9	14.3	0.61
Ryan Gomes	25	27	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-10	13	18.2	16.2	2.06	14.3	14.7	-0.35
Marko Jaric	42	43	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-9	11	18.1	15.6	2.55	14.4	14.7	-0.26
Greg Buckner	41	42	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-8	9	18.3	15.5	2.77	14.1	15.0	-0.93
Chris Richard	4	4	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-4	1	10.7	17.0	-6.27	11.2	14.7	-3.48
Sebastian Telfair	57	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-2	-3	15.5	18.9	-3.36	15.2	13.5	1.75
Al Jefferson	73	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-2	-3	17.4	14.2	3.15	14.9	13.4	1.46
Theo Ratliff	69	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	1	-9	17.4	14.6	2.78	14.3	15.6	-1.32
Rashad McCants	52	52	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.27	-9	2	-11	15.8	18.1	-2.28	14.2	15.0	-0.75
Corey Brewer	56	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	6	-19	16.1	17.7	-1.62	14.8	14.2	0.61

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	57	54	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-2	11	14.6	14.6	-0.05	15.8	18.2	-2.38
Brad Miller	72	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	2	3	15.0	13.2	1.73	17.1	15.5	1.54
Kevin Martin	77	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	2	3	14.8	13.3	1.53	17.4	13.9	3.52
Beno Udrih	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	3	1	15.0	14.1	0.86	16.4	17.1	-0.73
Kenny Thomas	57	58	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	15.2	13.7	1.49	16.0	18.1	-2.11
Spencer Hawes	14	12	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	1	5	12.5	14.9	-2.45	17.3	16.7	0.68
John Salmons	64	62	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	3	1	13.6	16.8	-3.27	16.8	16.6	0.19
Mikki Moore	40	36	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	6	-5	13.6	15.3	-1.68	17.9	16.0	1.89
Orien Greene	4	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	7	-7	19.2	14.4	4.88	11.0	17.2	-6.15
Quincy Douby	27	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	8	-9	14.9	14.5	0.38	18.0	16.2	1.81
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	3	3	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.02	-2	9	-11	16.7	14.5	2.16	13.0	16.9	-3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.58,0.67,0.54,0.57,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 82, NJN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.85,0.98,1	91.7%
ORL 97, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.65,0.61,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.91,1	91.6%
DAL 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.46,0.84,0.91,1	91.6%