NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	125		Excitement	4.9 [854]		MVP	Matt Barnes (GSW): +10.8%
Sacramento Kings	108		Comeback	1.4 [915]		LVP	Quincy Douby (SAC): -10.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Barnes	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	11	65%	0.14	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	-0.00	-0.01	20	60%	0.15	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	5	79%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.11	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	44%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Baron Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	20	54%	0.07	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	15	37%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	0.01	0.04	11	54%	-0.00	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	14	61%	0.12	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	10	46%	0.06	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	71%	0.07	5	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	11	69%	0.05	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Justin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0.05	4	69%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.03
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	2	12%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	8	22%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	31.4	15.4	31.7	3.3	27.5	139.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +37.2%

SAC -7.6%

GSW +16.7%

GSW +5.6%

SAC -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	13.4	13.9	15.4	117.9	102.9	104.5
season	13.5	14.7		105.7	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	9.4	13.5	14.4	17.2	13.4
SAC	15.4	13.6	11.4	15.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	77	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.07	23	-6	29	13.3	13.6	-0.28	14.5	12.2	2.23
Stephen Jackson	85	83	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.04	21	-4	25	13.9	11.6	2.24	14.3	12.2	2.16
Andris Biedrins	64	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.07	22	-5	27	14.9	11.1	3.76	13.4	14.6	-1.15
Baron Davis	81	79	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	8	1	13.9	11.8	2.06	14.1	13.3	0.82
Al Harrington	62	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	14	-11	13.3	13.5	-0.22	14.9	12.5	2.44
Mickael Pietrus	28	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	11	-5	11.9	14.0	-2.12	12.9	14.2	-1.32
Matt Barnes	58	58	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	16	-15	13.5	13.3	0.23	12.6	15.5	-2.90
Jason Richardson	72	73	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	18	-19	11.7	17.0	-5.23	13.5	14.8	-1.29
Kelenna Azubuike	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	16	-15	12.7	13.4	-0.77	13.0	13.9	-0.90

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Price	24	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.11	-6	-11	5	14.9	13.6	1.28	12.3	13.7	-1.42
John Salmons	75	75	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.20	4	-21	25	14.1	13.4	0.73	12.8	14.8	-2.01
Mike Bibby	60	59	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-18	19	12.9	15.2	-2.26	13.3	13.5	-0.21
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	73	74	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-17	17	13.8	14.2	-0.39	13.0	14.4	-1.42
Metta World Peace	51	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	-10	3	13.5	14.3	-0.77	15.5	11.2	4.28
Francisco Garcia	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-6	-5	13.4	15.0	-1.60	13.6	13.0	0.65
Justin Williams	32	32	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.11	-17	0	-17	14.2	13.8	0.39	14.4	13.0	1.42
Kevin Martin	76	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.01	-20	3	-23	14.6	11.9	2.70	12.2	16.5	-4.35
Quincy Douby	63	64	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	0.21	-29	12	-41	14.2	13.4	0.76	14.0	12.5	1.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.23,0.22,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.03,0,0	94.8%
UTA 105, NJN 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.29,0.22,0.34,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
BOS 99, UTA 90	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0	94.3%