NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	2.5 [1248]		MVP	Anthony Parker (TOR): +7.2%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	1.1 [904]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -5.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.07	7	69%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Gary Payton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	11	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	10	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	7	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	6	17%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	11	39%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.00	0.05	11	55%	-0.01	3	-0.04	9	56%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.06	11	77%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	-0.04	10	42%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	6	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	15	56%	0.06	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	9	54%	0.04	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.01
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	15	41%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	28.2	16.5	24.5	2.3	30.6	127.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +28.6%

TOR +8.4%

TOR +15.3%

TOR +0.3%

MIA -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.5	17.6	15.4	97.6	114.3	104.5
season	16.0	15.2		102.4	104.7
opponent	15.4	15.6		104.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	15.9	18.1	14.5	16.5
TOR	13.3	17.6	17.0	23.4	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	27	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-22	31	15.0	17.2	-2.28	22.9	14.9	8.04
Gary Payton	13	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-7	1	14.1	17.0	-2.88	14.2	18.2	-3.95
Antoine Walker	41	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.24	3	-16	19	15.3	17.7	-2.41	19.6	15.6	3.98
Alonzo Mourning	25	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-11	9	16.1	16.7	-0.56	20.9	16.2	4.62
Eddie Jones	56	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-9	5	17.2	15.2	2.04	17.7	17.3	0.35
Dorell Wright	34	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	0	-13	14.6	17.8	-3.12	19.2	16.4	2.80
Udonis Haslem	47	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	1	-15	18.3	14.3	3.93	15.8	19.8	-4.00
Shaquille O'Neal	55	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	-3	-7	16.9	15.9	1.01	15.7	20.9	-5.18
James Posey	58	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	0	-13	16.8	15.9	0.87	16.5	20.0	-3.57
Jason Williams	69	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	2	-17	17.1	13.9	3.18	16.3	22.6	-6.29

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Parker	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.03	14	-1	15	16.8	21.1	-4.34	16.9	14.7	2.17
Chris Bosh	70	70	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	2	9	17.6	17.4	0.17	16.6	15.9	0.71
T.J. Ford	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.07	16	-3	19	16.3	20.7	-4.43	16.9	15.7	1.19
Juan Dixon	64	65	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	-3	19	16.4	21.2	-4.83	16.7	15.9	0.74
Kris Humphries	44	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	16	-19	19.9	15.0	4.86	15.6	17.6	-2.03
Rasho Nesterovic	37	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	1	11	14.2	20.2	-6.04	18.0	15.4	2.67
Joey Graham	27	28	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	9	-5	19.6	16.6	2.92	15.4	17.1	-1.68
Jose Calderon	28	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	12	-11	21.2	15.8	5.41	15.3	17.1	-1.84
Morris Peterson	22	22	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.23	-6	19	-25	20.8	16.4	4.40	15.8	16.8	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, NOP 119	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
MEM 91, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
LAL 73, PHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%