NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	89		Excitement	6.2 [585]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +16.1%
San Antonio Spurs	90		Comeback	1.4 [929]		LVP	Ronald Murray (DET): -17.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	13	64%	0.20	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	18	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.08
Tayshaun Prince	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.03	10	57%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	0.05	10	48%	-0.07	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Ronald Murray	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.05	0.02	8	25%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.11	-0.01	6	59%	0.16	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.07
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	19	52%	0.13	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.02	10	73%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	0.00	12	49%	0.08	4	-0.10	11	45%	-0.06
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	27.4	15.7	26.2	2.6	44.2	141.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.3%

SAS +10.9%

SAS +4.9%

DET -12.9%

SAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.4	102.3	104.7	104.5
season	16.8	16.2		106.1	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		98.9	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.4	15.3	20.9	15.8	17.5
SAS	13.5	16.8	17.0	16.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	36	34	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.25	14	-15	29	17.0	17.8	-0.76	17.6	14.6	2.98
Ronald Murray	40	40	0.12	-0.61	0.73	-0.32	15	-16	31	17.2	17.7	-0.55	17.5	14.3	3.20
Antonio McDyess	67	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.62	15	-16	31	16.5	20.6	-4.06	15.6	16.5	-0.87
Rasheed Wallace	69	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.48	8	-9	17	17.2	18.6	-1.44	16.5	13.3	3.21
Tayshaun Prince	71	70	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	4	-9	18.1	14.8	3.26	14.8	20.1	-5.22
Chris Webber	38	37	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.12	-23	22	-45	19.7	15.8	3.88	14.9	16.5	-1.67
Chauncey Billups	47	46	-0.61	0.12	-0.73	-0.15	-16	15	-31	17.7	17.2	0.55	14.3	17.5	-3.20
Richard Hamilton	67	68	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.32	-13	12	-25	17.1	18.8	-1.73	15.9	15.4	0.47

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	45	45	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.38	10	-9	19	15.5	16.2	-0.73	17.9	17.0	0.87
Tony Parker	68	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-9	19	15.0	19.1	-4.10	17.8	16.3	1.50
Tim Duncan	63	66	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	-5	11	15.1	17.8	-2.75	17.6	17.0	0.68
Brent Barry	55	55	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	-16	33	15.1	17.1	-1.96	19.0	14.9	4.11
Francisco Elson	53	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	-3	7	16.5	14.7	1.86	17.9	16.8	1.15
Robert Horry	34	31	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	-7	15	14.9	16.4	-1.59	18.1	17.1	0.92
Manu Ginobili	47	47	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.59	-13	14	-27	16.2	15.3	0.88	15.9	19.3	-3.48
Beno Udrih	8	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	4	-7	17.6	15.6	2.00	20.6	17.2	3.47
Fabricio Oberto	2	2	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	5	-9	14.0	15.9	-1.86	10.5	17.6	-7.14
Jacque Vaughn	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	7	-13	20.2	15.2	4.96	12.8	18.1	-5.28
Matt Bonner	19	20	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	12	-23	19.0	14.9	4.09	16.2	17.8	-1.59
Michael Finley	26	28	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.10	-13	14	-27	16.6	15.5	1.09	16.0	18.2	-2.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.79,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.93,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 72, NJN 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.96,1,1,1	93.9%
SEA 84, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.83,0.88,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.87,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.84,1	93.6%
PHI 72, HOU 77	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.98,1	93.2%