NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	84		Excitement	7.9 [276]		MVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): +24.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	83		Comeback	1.2 [873]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -41.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.13	0.00	13	66%	0.25	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	71%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.11	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	19	42%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	8	37%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	14	43%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	12	24%	-0.10	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.24	0.24	0.06	0.17	-0.00	18	54%	0.24	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.10	0.00	10	72%	0.22	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	9	68%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jared Reiner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	5	33%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.06,-0.13,-0.18,-0.24,-0.19,-0.3	-0.30	-0.06	-0.25	-0.00	18	45%	-0.10	3	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.41	-0.41	-0.13	-0.29	-0.00	8	39%	-0.25	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.6	32.2	16.4	23.2	2.5	33.3	133.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +7.0%

MIL -14.1%

DET +46.1%

DET +9.4%

DET +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	18.1	15.4	15.4	97.7	96.5	104.5
season	16.8	15.2		106.1	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.9	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.8	17.7	20.1	20.1	18.1
MIL	19.5	12.9	14.2	15.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	77	76	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.35	13	-12	25	17.7	22.1	-4.45	15.9	11.3	4.59
Lindsey Hunter	18	17	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.31	5	-4	9	18.1	18.1	-0.09	13.8	15.8	-1.99
Chauncey Billups	69	69	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.47	-4	5	-9	17.9	19.1	-1.23	15.8	13.8	1.99
Antonio McDyess	45	46	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.29	2	-1	3	18.2	18.0	0.20	14.3	16.5	-2.22
Rasheed Wallace	67	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.43	-6	7	-13	18.6	16.3	2.33	15.6	14.7	0.86
Tayshaun Prince	63	64	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.48	-8	9	-17	18.5	17.0	1.48	15.4	15.3	0.06
Nazr Mohammed	10	10	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	-2	5	19.6	17.9	1.67	12.6	15.7	-3.12
Carlos Delfino	32	32	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	4	-7	18.5	17.9	0.54	14.1	16.1	-2.07
Chris Webber	49	50	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	-2	5	17.4	19.1	-1.67	16.6	13.6	2.96

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Noel	1	2	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-1	1	0.0	15.5	-15.54	11.0	18.3	-7.30
Brian Skinner	77	77	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-3	5	15.2	16.4	-1.21	18.6	13.7	4.98
Jared Reiner	9	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	2	-5	16.4	15.2	1.21	15.4	18.4	-3.04
Ruben Patterson	46	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	0	-1	15.1	15.6	-0.49	16.9	19.7	-2.82
Charlie Bell	68	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.41	6	-7	13	15.7	14.1	1.58	18.1	18.3	-0.24
Andrew Bogut	69	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-5	9	15.6	14.5	1.11	18.5	16.8	1.64
Mo Williams	69	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	1	-3	15.4	15.1	0.30	18.8	15.5	3.24
Michael Redd	52	52	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	6	-13	15.1	15.8	-0.67	19.6	15.9	3.67
Earl Boykins	39	40	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.50	-4	3	-7	15.3	15.4	-0.10	16.0	19.9	-3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.34,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0,0	92.2%
NJN 99, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.17,0	92.1%
IND 121, DET 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.7%