NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	6.6 [512]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +15.3%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	1.7 [1139]		LVP	Dan Gadzuric (MIL): -15.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	-0.03	0.09	-0.04	13	48%	0.13	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.11
Charlie Bell	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	12	46%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	18	51%	0.05	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02
Earl Boykins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	12	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	11	62%	0.07	4	-0.17	4	50%	-0.05
Dan Gadzuric	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.01	13	59%	0.22	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.06
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.12	1	-0.05	7	86%	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	14	47%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	8	55%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	26.4	16.8	34.1	2.6	32.5	138.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -10.9%

DET +24.5%

DET +12.1%

DET +24.3%

MIL -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	15.9	15.4	95.6	105.5	104.5
season	15.2	16.8		105.3	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		101.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	16.8	16.1	14.9	16.0
DET	15.9	16.0	13.9	17.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	40	41	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.15	6	-16	22	16.1	15.8	0.30	17.6	14.5	3.08
Dan Gadzuric	11	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	-3	-4	17.6	15.7	1.91	13.8	16.2	-2.34
Ruben Patterson	71	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-4	-2	16.4	14.4	2.01	15.4	17.6	-2.28
Andrew Bogut	77	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-8	6	15.8	17.0	-1.22	16.4	13.2	3.14
Mo Williams	80	80	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-8	6	15.7	17.8	-2.07	16.6	10.5	6.05
Brian Skinner	38	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-2	-6	16.3	15.7	0.58	14.7	16.7	-2.03
Earl Boykins	57	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	3	-16	15.5	16.8	-1.27	15.9	15.8	0.03
Charlie Bell	76	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.10	-18	8	-26	15.8	16.6	-0.81	15.1	20.5	-5.45

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	68	67	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.10	20	-10	30	15.0	18.6	-3.61	16.5	14.3	2.28
Tayshaun Prince	84	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.22	8	2	6	15.9	15.6	0.32	15.9	16.3	-0.36
Rasheed Wallace	70	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	1	8	16.0	15.4	0.63	16.1	15.4	0.70
Jason Maxiell	30	32	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	0	10	16.3	15.7	0.64	16.2	15.8	0.41
Richard Hamilton	68	68	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	6	-2	15.9	15.9	-0.06	15.5	17.4	-1.92
Carlos Delfino	30	29	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	2	6	15.8	15.9	-0.05	17.1	15.4	1.74
Chris Webber	49	46	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	6	-2	16.0	15.7	0.33	16.4	15.5	0.94
Nazr Mohammed	18	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	7	-4	13.8	16.4	-2.54	14.4	16.4	-2.01
Antonio McDyess	15	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	16	-22	16.3	15.8	0.48	15.2	16.1	-0.86
Lindsey Hunter	23	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.11	-10	20	-30	18.6	15.0	3.61	14.3	16.5	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.98,1,1	95.0%
LAC 81, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%
LAL 94, BOS 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.79,0.97,1,1	93.9%