NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	8.8 [165]		MVP	Danny Granger (IND): +32.8%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	46.2 [44]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -31.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.14	0.17	-0.01	0.02	10	90%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	22	62%	0.26	4	-0.15	8	87%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	15	47%	0.05	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	13	47%	0.01	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05
James Posey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	55%	-0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	7	21%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	3	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.09	0.23	-0.01	11	64%	0.34	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.13	0.01	12	71%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	57%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Shawne Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	13	39%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	7	45%	-0.04	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	11	58%	0.01	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.18	-0.01	10	43%	0.03	3	-0.27	1	0%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.25	-0.08	-0.02	20	23%	-0.24	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.1	2.6	28.6	16.3	23.5	2.4	33.3	1.8	14.1	148.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +15.8%

IND +9.3%

IND +38.7%

MIA -24.6%

IND +10.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.4	91.3	94.1	104.5
season	16.0	15.3		102.4	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.6		103.9	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.3	13.7	14.7	19.8	15.4	15.4
IND	16.2	14.5	14.7	16.2	17.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	64	64	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.01	6	-8	14	15.4	15.5	-0.16	14.8	16.9	-2.17
James Posey	29	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.28	-13	11	-24	17.0	14.8	2.13	12.2	17.0	-4.80
Antoine Walker	38	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.20	-12	10	-22	15.9	15.2	0.77	13.3	16.8	-3.55
Shaquille O'Neal	29	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	7	-16	15.1	15.6	-0.42	14.7	16.0	-1.30
Alonzo Mourning	62	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.40	7	-9	16	15.5	15.3	0.16	15.2	16.1	-0.88
Udonis Haslem	68	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.55	12	-14	26	14.7	16.9	-2.15	16.7	13.4	3.29
Jason Kapono	74	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.61	14	-16	30	14.8	17.0	-2.13	16.9	12.2	4.77
Michael Doleac	9	9	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	0	-2	19.4	15.1	4.39	21.9	15.0	6.91
Dwyane Wade	90	89	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.57	4	-6	10	15.3	16.6	-1.35	16.0	12.6	3.41
Gary Payton	52	50	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.42	-17	15	-32	15.8	15.1	0.75	15.9	15.3	0.61

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	52	49	1.15	-0.65	1.80	0.62	18	-16	34	15.9	15.2	0.72	16.6	14.4	2.16
Jeff Foster	37	35	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.48	10	-8	18	15.4	15.7	-0.33	16.5	14.9	1.68
Ike Diogu	21	22	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.01	19	-17	36	13.3	16.2	-2.84	17.9	14.8	3.09
Danny Granger	88	89	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.58	-3	5	-8	15.5	16.1	-0.64	15.7	13.6	2.16
Darrell Armstrong	52	54	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.17	18	-16	34	16.0	15.1	0.92	15.8	15.0	0.76
Jamaal Tinsley	53	53	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.59	-15	17	-32	15.1	16.2	-1.11	14.7	16.2	-1.52
Jermaine O'Neal	84	84	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.36	-13	15	-28	16.2	12.6	3.62	14.8	18.3	-3.53
Shawne Williams	3	4	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	6	-10	25.3	15.3	10.04	8.5	15.7	-7.22
Troy Murphy	62	64	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.04	-12	14	-26	15.6	15.5	0.06	15.1	16.0	-0.91
Mike Dunleavy	58	61	-0.55	1.05	-1.61	-0.32	-8	10	-18	15.0	16.4	-1.40	14.6	16.6	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.79,0.94,0.85,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.34,0.53,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.54,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.98,1	89.6%
HOU 95, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.54,0.73,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.68,0.73,1	88.7%
UTA 111, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.4,0.53,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.92,0.5,0.39,0.63,0.85,0.98,1	86.9%