NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	99		Excitement	6.5 [526]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): +30.1%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.0 [1032]		LVP	Devin Harris (DAL): -5.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.21,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3	0.16	0.17	0.03	16	66%	0.30	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07	-0.01	0.08	0.01	23	45%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Howard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	18	58%	0.18	4	-0.13	7	71%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	42%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.04	0.02	21	61%	0.17	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.05
Jason Kapono	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	12	59%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	61%	0.10	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	16	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	3.0	31.0	19.5	26.0	1.8	34.3	146.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +17.3%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +27.9%

DAL +1.1%

MIA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	15.2	15.4	112.5	103.3	104.5
season	16.3	16.0		108.7	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.2		104.3	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.8	14.8	21.0	17.8	17.2
MIA	16.2	15.2	15.0	14.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	48	49	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-8	22	16.6	17.9	-1.28	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Dirk Nowitzki	76	76	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.28	6	0	6	17.5	15.7	1.81	15.1	15.6	-0.49
Jason Terry	68	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	4	-2	17.6	16.1	1.46	15.0	15.7	-0.67
Devean George	43	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	2	2	19.2	15.3	3.88	13.7	16.7	-2.94
Josh Howard	77	79	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.30	-1	7	-8	17.1	18.5	-1.40	15.1	15.6	-0.55
Erick Dampier	60	62	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	9	-12	16.9	17.8	-0.87	16.1	13.0	3.13
Anthony Johnson	17	17	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	0	6	15.7	17.6	-1.89	16.5	14.8	1.69
Greg Buckner	24	24	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	3	0	16.7	17.4	-0.71	15.7	15.0	0.70
DeSagana Diop	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	7	-8	19.7	17.0	2.62	13.0	15.3	-2.31
Devin Harris	21	20	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	6	-6	15.1	17.9	-2.80	16.5	14.8	1.73

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	52	51	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.18	5	-11	16	15.0	15.4	-0.46	17.3	17.1	0.25
Michael Doleac	11	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-3	0	12.9	15.5	-2.56	17.4	17.2	0.16
Alonzo Mourning	34	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-3	0	17.2	13.9	3.34	17.8	16.9	0.95
Dorell Wright	7	7	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	1	-8	15.1	15.2	-0.01	14.4	17.5	-3.04
Gary Payton	16	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	5	-16	13.4	15.5	-2.17	15.3	17.7	-2.34
Jason Williams	74	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.42	5	-11	16	15.5	13.4	2.17	17.7	15.3	2.34
Dwyane Wade	83	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.38	1	-7	8	15.2	15.1	0.01	17.5	14.4	3.04
Udonis Haslem	83	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-5	4	15.3	14.0	1.25	17.3	15.8	1.50
Antoine Walker	49	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	14.6	15.8	-1.15	16.3	18.3	-1.99
James Posey	41	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	6	-18	14.7	15.5	-0.82	17.4	17.0	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.3,0.29,0.13,0.31,0.37,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 94, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.09,0.02,0	93.1%
IND 87, HOU 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.04,0	92.3%
NYK 98, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.26,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.15,0	92.2%