NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	91		Excitement	5.8 [666]		MVP	Keith Bogans (ORL): +24.0%
Golden State Warriors	76		Comeback	2.1 [393]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -22.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.13	0.09	-0.02	9	80%	0.24	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.00	9	72%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.02	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	18	59%	0.10	5	-0.08	15	53%	-0.06
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	9	32%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.01	7	28%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Grant Hill	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	8	33%	-0.09	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Darko Milicic	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.03	11	14%	-0.15	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.06

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	11	42%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	12	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	6	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	14	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.06	-0.00	14	38%	-0.10	6	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	33.8	15.6	26.4	1.8	31.0	139.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +32.4%

GSW -1.9%

ORL +3.5%

ORL +17.0%

GSW -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	17.9	12.9	15.4	97.8	80.9	104.5
season	15.9	13.5		103.4	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		105.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.3	20.4	15.6	19.9	17.9
GSW	11.4	13.2	15.0	12.0	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	46	49	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	3	9	17.4	18.4	-1.03	14.1	11.6	2.48
Dwight Howard	87	87	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	1	13	18.1	15.5	2.60	13.0	12.0	0.97
Jameer Nelson	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	1	13	17.7	18.4	-0.66	13.0	12.7	0.25
Keyon Dooling	53	55	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.05	9	6	3	18.0	17.8	0.19	13.5	12.1	1.44
Keith Bogans	52	51	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	3	9	18.3	17.4	0.89	13.0	12.7	0.32
Grant Hill	50	51	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	9	-3	17.3	18.7	-1.33	12.5	13.3	-0.80
Carlos Arroyo	36	37	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	15	-15	18.3	17.7	0.56	12.7	13.0	-0.27
Tony Battie	53	51	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	11	-7	18.1	17.7	0.41	11.8	14.2	-2.47
Trevor Ariza	29	29	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	11	-7	18.2	17.8	0.39	11.9	13.3	-1.39

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Diogu	24	23	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-18	21	13.9	12.6	1.32	22.3	16.5	5.80
Matt Barnes	52	52	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.09	-2	-13	11	11.5	14.7	-3.21	19.3	16.2	3.11
Kelenna Azubuike	49	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-14	13	14.0	11.6	2.40	18.6	17.2	1.47
Baron Davis	78	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	-8	1	12.8	13.2	-0.43	17.7	18.9	-1.21
Andris Biedrins	52	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.12	-12	-3	-9	12.8	13.0	-0.28	17.3	18.8	-1.52
Adonal Foyle	32	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	13.9	12.4	1.58	18.1	17.9	0.24
Troy Murphy	37	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-14	13	13.5	12.5	0.98	17.1	18.4	-1.36
Mike Dunleavy	26	24	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-7	-1	12.3	13.1	-0.76	17.0	18.3	-1.32
Mickael Pietrus	58	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	1	-17	13.1	12.5	0.59	16.7	20.1	-3.35
Monta Ellis	62	63	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.05	-23	8	-31	12.1	14.4	-2.25	17.4	19.1	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.19,0.34,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
DEN 96, POR 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
PHX 89, SEA 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.73,0.58,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0,0.01,0	93.6%