NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	91		Excitement	7.6 [328]		MVP	Devin Harris (DAL): +23.4%
Dallas Mavericks	100		Comeback	3.1 [732]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -41.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.08	-0.02	14	71%	0.27	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Marquis Daniels	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	9	56%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	7	33%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Maceo Baston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	18	45%	-0.00	1	-0.00	8	75%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	5	67%	0.04	5	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.42	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.17,-0.21,-0.26,-0.31,-0.39,-0.39,-0.42,-0.42	-0.19	-0.22	0.00	18	32%	-0.28	5	-0.14	2	0%	-0.07

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.11	0.06	10	83%	0.34	2	-0.10	9	89%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	7	81%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.02	17	53%	0.17	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.01,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	23	47%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	-0.00	4	10%	-0.14	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	0.00	5	0%	-0.17	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	29.2	16.6	24.2	2.5	39.3	140.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.0%

DAL +11.1%

IND -0.9%

DAL +6.3%

DAL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DAL	NBA	IND	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.9	15.4	98.9	107.5	104.5
season	15.3	16.3		101.3	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.7	16.4	14.7	15.4	15.3
DAL	16.7	16.3	16.6	14.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	27	27	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.02	8	-17	25	14.7	15.5	-0.80	18.1	14.9	3.22
Sarunas Jasikevicius	3	2	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-5	1	17.7	15.2	2.48	10.5	16.0	-5.48
Maceo Baston	2	2	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-8	7	8.5	15.4	-6.92	20.0	15.8	4.23
Stephen Jackson	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.14	-1	-8	7	15.4	15.1	0.25	15.7	16.0	-0.27
Al Harrington	74	75	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-3	-3	15.0	16.3	-1.25	16.7	12.3	4.37
Marquis Daniels	45	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-3	-3	15.1	15.4	-0.31	16.0	15.7	0.36
Danny Granger	61	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-4	-1	14.9	16.1	-1.20	15.4	16.7	-1.21
Jeff Foster	63	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	0	-9	16.2	13.2	3.02	15.2	17.3	-2.16
Jermaine O'Neal	76	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	-1	-7	15.4	14.4	1.01	15.8	16.1	-0.32
Jamaal Tinsley	60	62	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	4	-17	15.1	15.5	-0.35	15.0	17.5	-2.53

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	63	63	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.37	10	-1	11	15.2	17.3	-2.17	15.4	15.0	0.35
Dirk Nowitzki	71	68	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-7	23	15.3	17.5	-2.21	15.4	14.8	0.59
Josh Howard	75	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-5	19	15.3	18.0	-2.65	15.5	14.3	1.20
Erick Dampier	52	53	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-1	11	15.3	16.6	-1.30	16.7	13.4	3.28
Devean George	57	57	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-4	17	16.7	14.6	2.13	15.1	15.5	-0.35
DJ Mbenga	17	15	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	9	-9	16.2	15.8	0.39	14.8	15.4	-0.56
Jerry Stackhouse	20	20	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.04	0	9	-9	16.2	15.8	0.43	15.9	15.1	0.80
Jason Terry	37	39	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	14	-19	15.4	16.2	-0.85	15.7	14.9	0.82
Greg Buckner	27	27	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	16	-23	18.1	14.9	3.22	13.8	15.9	-2.06
DeSagana Diop	25	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	12	-15	16.9	15.5	1.45	12.2	16.4	-4.22
Anthony Johnson	23	22	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.02	-5	14	-19	17.3	15.4	1.86	14.0	15.7	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.9,0.85,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 94, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.8%
DET 94, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,1,1	92.1%
POR 83, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	92.0%