NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	107		Excitement	7.8 [297]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +27.7%
Boston Celtics	104		Comeback	3.1 [513]		LVP	Wally Szczerbiak (BOS): -18.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.28	0.13	0.15	0.01	20	64%	0.38	3	-0.11	10	80%	0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	19	64%	0.24	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.00	9	45%	0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Larry Hughes	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	10	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Anderson Varejao	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Daniel Gibson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	8	54%	0.04	3	-0.12	8	87%	0.02
Eric Snow	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	11	35%	-0.04	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	13	70%	0.20	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.03	-0.00	13	69%	0.11	3	-0.06	6	83%	-0.12
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.03	9	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	12	67%	0.08	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	13	43%	-0.09	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	31.1	15.8	30.7	0.4	35.4	141.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +38.4%

CLE +8.3%

CLE +6.3%

BOS -1.5%

BOS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	BOS	NBA	CLE	BOS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.5	15.4	110.3	107.2	104.5
season	16.0	15.5		103.2	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.6		105.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.4	15.2	16.0	14.3	15.2
BOS	15.2	14.2	14.6	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	90	91	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-6	15	15.3	14.6	0.68	14.5	15.0	-0.55
Anderson Varejao	37	35	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-10	23	13.5	16.2	-2.69	15.2	14.1	1.07
LeBron James	91	91	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	0	3	15.2	15.0	0.22	14.5	14.3	0.16
Damon Jones	52	50	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-1	5	14.9	15.6	-0.69	14.6	14.4	0.16
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	82	83	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	-4	11	15.7	12.4	3.32	14.7	13.3	1.40
Eric Snow	58	60	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.20	-5	8	-13	15.5	14.7	0.77	13.9	15.4	-1.53
Drew Gooden	68	68	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.21	-8	11	-19	15.5	14.6	0.84	14.4	14.8	-0.39
Daniel Gibson	7	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	11	-19	14.6	15.3	-0.68	14.6	14.5	0.09

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	16	15	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.12	7	-10	17	12.3	14.9	-2.60	16.4	15.0	1.41
Michael Olowokandi	10	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	1	-5	12.4	14.7	-2.32	13.6	15.4	-1.82
Al Jefferson	66	67	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.27	6	-9	15	14.7	14.1	0.52	15.6	14.3	1.31
Brian Scalabrine	27	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-3	3	14.4	14.5	-0.11	14.3	15.6	-1.24
Delonte West	64	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-7	11	14.6	14.2	0.37	15.9	13.8	2.15
Wally Szczerbiak	60	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-5	7	14.0	15.2	-1.18	15.3	15.0	0.34
Ryan Gomes	46	46	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	5	-13	14.8	14.2	0.53	15.8	14.7	1.10
Sebastian Telfair	48	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	0	-3	15.1	13.9	1.27	14.1	16.3	-2.26
Kendrick Perkins	26	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	6	-15	15.9	14.0	1.91	14.9	15.3	-0.49
Gerald Green	41	41	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	3	-9	13.5	15.2	-1.77	14.4	15.8	-1.33
Tony Allen	81	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.42	-4	1	-5	14.8	12.7	2.08	15.3	14.6	0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.66,0.63,0.36,0.26,0.1,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.33,0.32,0.11,0.09,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 118, NYK 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.72,0.7,0.79,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.29,0.2,0.31,0.15,0.22,0.15,0	91.5%
PHX 86, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.31,0.11,0.16,0.01,0	91.3%
CHI 106, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.59,0.48,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.15,0	90.9%