NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	7.7 [306]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +23.5%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	2.7 [587]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -41.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.24,0.16,0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	17	60%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Ronald Murray	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.00	5	71%	0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.09	0.00	7	57%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	44%	0.03	1	-0.01	8	50%	-0.04
Dale Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,-0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	58%	0.06	5	-0.14	3	67%	-0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09	0.00	-0.08	0.02	11	48%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	4	112%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.00	12	69%	0.21	2	-0.07	5	40%	-0.06
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.37	-0.05	23	36%	-0.41	0	0.00	13	77%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.7	29.3	19.8	31.2	3.3	35.3	148.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +44.5%

MIA -0.2%

DET +16.2%

MIA -16.3%

DET +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	18.1	17.5	15.4	107.4	104.9	104.5
season	16.8	16.0		106.1	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.4	17.4	17.1	19.4	18.1
MIA	15.9	16.9	19.8	17.5	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	37	36	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-5	12	18.1	18.0	0.11	17.7	17.3	0.33
Chauncey Billups	64	63	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.59	0	2	-2	18.8	15.5	3.30	17.7	16.6	1.12
Antonio McDyess	40	40	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	-6	14	17.5	18.6	-1.04	17.8	17.1	0.73
Tayshaun Prince	61	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	2	-2	18.3	17.3	0.96	17.2	18.4	-1.16
Rasheed Wallace	64	62	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.38	-2	4	-6	18.8	15.2	3.59	17.3	17.9	-0.61
Richard Hamilton	59	59	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.46	-6	8	-14	18.0	18.3	-0.27	17.5	17.4	0.10
Carlos Delfino	13	13	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.00	2	0	2	18.3	18.0	0.28	18.2	17.3	0.89
Dale Davis	16	17	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	1	0	15.7	18.7	-2.97	16.4	17.8	-1.35
Nazr Mohammed	34	35	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	17.9	18.2	-0.23	17.8	17.2	0.56
Lindsey Hunter	17	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.14	2	0	2	15.5	18.8	-3.30	16.6	17.7	-1.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	51	51	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.18	10	-12	22	17.4	17.7	-0.35	19.0	16.5	2.55
Michael Doleac	9	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	3	-8	16.0	17.7	-1.67	14.4	18.5	-4.08
Gary Payton	39	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.34	8	-10	18	18.1	17.0	1.10	20.3	16.0	4.26
Jason Williams	28	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.03	-5	3	-8	17.0	17.7	-0.74	17.2	18.5	-1.26
Dorell Wright	51	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-7	12	17.3	17.8	-0.45	18.3	17.7	0.60
Antoine Walker	24	23	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	7	-16	17.5	17.5	-0.03	15.4	19.1	-3.75
Dwyane Wade	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.51	4	-6	10	17.5	16.5	1.03	18.4	11.5	6.92
Jason Kapono	33	33	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	8	-18	17.4	17.5	-0.10	16.1	19.5	-3.40
James Posey	32	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	4	-10	17.4	17.5	-0.07	17.3	18.6	-1.21
Udonis Haslem	61	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	0	-2	17.8	16.5	1.30	18.7	16.3	2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.17,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 109, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.63,0.69,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	92.5%
ORL 106, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.14,0.28,0	92.0%
MEM 97, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.62,0.52,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.46,0.4,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.27,0	91.9%