NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	129		Excitement	4.5 [926]		MVP	Andris Biedrins (GSW): +9.4%
Denver Nuggets	140		Comeback	1.2 [868]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -10.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andris Biedrins	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.02	0.04	17	82%	0.19	7	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.19	0.00	0.11	10	84%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	12	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Keith McLeod	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	8	69%	0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Roberson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.00	0.04	13	52%	-0.03	5	-0.08	1	0%	-0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	9	40%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.20	0.00	0.13	18	77%	0.11	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	10	57%	0.11	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.02
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	9	62%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	57%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.01	0.04	21	64%	0.13	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	5	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.11	0.01	-0.10	3	20%	0.01	3	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Jamal Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.4	28.5	17.3	25.4	0.7	28.6	131.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +9.1%

DEN +11.4%

DEN +10.5%

DEN +17.2%

DEN +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	12.5	13.1	15.4	114.2	125.0	104.5
season	13.5	14.0		105.7	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.2		104.5	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.3	13.4	13.1	11.3	12.5
DEN	12.6	12.8	15.2	12.3	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick O'Bryant	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-17	23	11.5	12.6	-1.16	14.3	13.0	1.35
Adonal Foyle	18	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-18	25	11.4	12.7	-1.24	13.4	13.1	0.33
Matt Barnes	71	71	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.33	11	-22	33	12.1	13.2	-1.16	13.7	12.1	1.57
Anthony Roberson	34	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-15	19	10.9	13.2	-2.34	12.2	13.5	-1.29
Andris Biedrins	72	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-10	9	12.6	12.2	0.42	13.6	12.3	1.27
Mickael Pietrus	40	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	-4	-3	12.4	12.5	-0.13	12.0	13.7	-1.78
Monta Ellis	66	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-2	-7	13.2	11.6	1.60	13.9	12.0	1.92
Keith McLeod	49	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	0	-11	12.0	12.9	-0.86	11.6	14.3	-2.68
Jason Richardson	69	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.09	-18	7	-25	13.0	11.7	1.32	14.1	11.7	2.35
Mike Dunleavy	76	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	3	-17	12.5	12.5	-0.08	12.1	15.3	-3.27
Troy Murphy	57	56	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.11	-23	12	-35	13.5	11.5	2.03	13.5	12.7	0.73

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	53	52	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.13	25	-14	39	13.6	12.7	0.93	13.5	11.6	1.84
Andre Miller	63	64	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.14	25	-14	39	13.4	12.7	0.75	13.9	10.6	3.27
Marcus Camby	64	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	-4	19	13.5	12.6	0.93	12.6	12.3	0.30
Carmelo Anthony	71	72	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.06	15	-4	19	13.7	12.1	1.65	12.6	12.3	0.23
J.R. Smith	57	57	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.23	21	-10	31	13.2	13.1	0.09	12.9	12.1	0.75
Earl Boykins	76	76	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	14	-17	12.3	14.7	-2.41	12.1	13.3	-1.25
Linas Kleiza	37	37	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.30	-8	19	-27	11.9	13.7	-1.79	10.8	13.3	-2.53
Joe Smith	43	44	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	11	-11	12.1	13.8	-1.70	12.5	12.5	0.02
DerMarr Johnson	11	12	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.27	-9	20	-29	14.1	13.0	1.08	10.9	12.7	-1.76
Jamal Sampson	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	16	-21	16.1	12.9	3.23	11.7	12.5	-0.87
Yakhouba Diawara	67	69	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	21	-31	12.9	13.5	-0.59	11.7	13.7	-1.92
Reggie Evans	11	13	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.13	-11	22	-33	14.5	13.0	1.48	11.8	12.6	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 94, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
ATL 75, MIN 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
CLE 96, SAC 123	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%