NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	87		Excitement	8.3 [231]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +73.8%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	6.1 [418]		LVP	Danny Fortson (SEA): -24.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.11	-0.01	15	64%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,0.07	-0.07	0.14	-0.00	15	47%	0.18	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	9	44%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	53%	0.05	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	10	42%	0.04	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Danny Fortson	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.12	-0.13	0.00	8	24%	-0.13	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.74	0.74	0.01	0.72	-0.01	14	56%	0.80	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	2	125%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	5	67%	0.13	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.04
Bo Outlaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.05
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.11	0.00	12	75%	0.14	3	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.05	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	67%	0.07	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	11	50%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	27.6	16.4	24.4	2.5	34.3	135.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +76.4%

SEA -9.8%

ORL +9.2%

SEA -29.0%

ORL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	ORL	NBA	SEA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	15.4	91.6	95.7	104.5
season	15.4	15.9		105.5	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.0	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.2	14.2	16.0	14.3	15.2
ORL	13.8	19.4	14.6	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	37	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	0	-1	15.7	14.9	0.82	16.2	15.2	0.98
Earl Watson	34	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-1	1	15.5	15.0	0.42	16.0	15.4	0.59
Chris Wilcox	60	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.29	4	-5	9	15.5	14.6	0.90	16.3	14.4	1.95
Damien Wilkins	26	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-1	1	13.0	16.0	-3.03	15.1	15.8	-0.65
Luke Ridnour	74	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.43	6	-7	13	15.2	15.2	-0.05	15.2	17.2	-2.10
Rashard Lewis	70	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	0	-1	15.8	13.5	2.28	15.8	15.0	0.75
Danny Fortson	29	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	6	-13	16.1	14.8	1.35	12.6	16.9	-4.32
Nick Collison	63	60	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.59	2	-3	5	14.4	16.8	-2.38	15.9	15.1	0.84
Ray Allen	82	81	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	7	-15	15.1	15.8	-0.75	15.9	13.7	2.14

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	68	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	-2	5	14.8	18.0	-3.18	15.5	14.4	1.09
Darko Milicic	30	31	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-3	7	13.9	16.4	-2.49	15.0	15.3	-0.25
Dwight Howard	58	61	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	-5	11	15.2	16.2	-0.99	15.8	14.1	1.64
Tony Battie	64	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	-3	7	14.3	18.5	-4.16	15.9	13.6	2.29
Jameer Nelson	55	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	-3	7	14.7	17.0	-2.33	15.6	14.5	1.08
Grant Hill	62	64	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	1	-1	15.6	15.7	-0.14	15.5	14.5	1.06
Carlos Arroyo	37	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	4	-7	17.0	14.7	2.33	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Keith Bogans	11	11	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.00	6	-5	11	15.4	15.6	-0.28	16.1	15.1	1.01
Keyon Dooling	43	45	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.25	-7	8	-15	17.0	14.3	2.70	14.0	16.2	-2.20
Pat Garrity	16	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	4	-7	20.2	14.6	5.62	13.1	15.6	-2.57
Bo Outlaw	16	17	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.06	-9	10	-19	20.5	14.6	5.92	12.6	15.8	-3.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.28,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.57,0.58,0.72,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.97,0.93,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, CHH 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.33,0.21,0.31,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.77,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.72,1	90.6%
DAL 95, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,1	90.4%
LAC 92, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.87,0.96,1,1,1,1	90.0%