NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	9.2 [122]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +33.3%
Houston Rockets	87		Comeback	1.7 [386]		LVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): -53.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.14	0.19	-0.00	10	77%	0.33	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.04	-0.00	12	73%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Sean Marks	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	6	38%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Melvin Sanders	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	0.00	4	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.05
Beno Udrih	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02	-0.04	0.07	0.01	7	45%	0.10	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.04
Nick Van Exel	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	8	35%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	17%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.26	-0.07	-0.19	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.19	2	0%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.08	0.00	7	82%	0.19	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	11	69%	0.16	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	2	57%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	13	57%	0.25	4	-0.18	4	100%	0.05
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	11	33%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	11	42%	-0.05	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.36,-0.54	-0.54	-0.10	-0.43	0.01	16	37%	-0.27	2	-0.27	6	33%	-0.44

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.6	27.2	15.8	29.2	2.6	40.0	138.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +3.6%

SAS +26.7%

HOU -12.8%

SAS +31.6%

SAS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	15.6	95.7	96.7	104.4
season	16.3	16.1		106.0	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.6		101.4	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	15.2	14.2	16.5	15.3
HOU	17.2	14.8	17.4	15.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	21	22	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-5	12	14.5	15.6	-1.05	14.0	16.8	-2.79
Robert Horry	43	42	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.08	20	-18	38	14.8	15.8	-0.92	16.9	15.5	1.40
Brent Barry	56	54	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	-1	4	14.8	16.1	-1.33	15.4	17.4	-2.01
Beno Udrih	54	53	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.36	-1	3	-4	15.4	15.3	0.13	16.4	15.8	0.63
Melvin Sanders	29	29	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.49	-8	10	-18	15.3	15.3	0.02	15.7	16.4	-0.69
Michael Finley	42	42	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	-7	16	15.3	15.4	-0.09	16.2	16.1	0.15
Nick Van Exel	39	37	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.08	3	-1	4	15.3	15.4	-0.13	15.8	16.4	-0.63
Fabricio Oberto	36	33	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.50	-13	15	-28	15.4	15.3	0.18	14.6	17.1	-2.45
Rasho Nesterovic	37	33	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	3	-4	14.5	15.9	-1.41	17.0	15.6	1.38
Manu Ginobili	50	46	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	2	-2	15.6	15.0	0.66	17.3	15.0	2.35
Bruce Bowen	19	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	6	-10	16.4	15.1	1.37	16.4	16.1	0.27
Nazr Mohammed	39	40	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	7	-12	16.9	14.2	2.69	17.0	15.5	1.52

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Brunson	13	14	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-4	6	17.2	16.0	1.26	15.6	15.3	0.28
Juwan Howard	45	49	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-6	10	17.3	15.0	2.31	14.8	16.0	-1.18
Ryan Bowen	6	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	0	-2	15.3	16.2	-0.88	15.2	15.3	-0.14
Dikembe Mutombo	32	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	3	-8	18.1	15.1	3.06	14.7	15.7	-0.94
Charles Hayes	58	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.33	3	-5	8	15.1	18.1	-3.06	15.7	14.7	0.94
David Wesley	67	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.47	6	-8	14	16.5	15.2	1.32	15.4	15.2	0.14
Luther Head	65	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.48	6	-8	14	15.9	16.9	-1.00	15.3	15.3	0.04
Keith Bogans	42	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	12	-26	16.2	16.1	0.02	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Stromile Swift	45	44	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	4	-10	15.0	17.3	-2.31	16.0	14.8	1.18
Rafer Alston	77	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	2	-6	16.0	17.2	-1.26	15.3	15.6	-0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.57,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 125, OKC 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.32,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.25,0.45,0.55,0.09,0	91.9%
MIL 90, CHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.23,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.47,0.31,0.43,0.45,0.15,0	91.4%
TOR 97, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.33,0.26,0	91.3%