NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	105		Excitement	8.0 [265]		MVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): +28.5%
Sacramento Kings	111		Comeback	4.3 [544]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -25.1%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.06	-0.03	13	62%	0.22	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.05	0.01	14	67%	0.13	1	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	70%	0.12	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.05	-0.10	0.02	20	57%	0.07	3	-0.15	6	67%	-0.04
Chris Wilcox	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.15	0.14	0.00	9	81%	0.28	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.09	0.02	8	68%	0.18	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.05
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.04	-0.00	16	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.02
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.08	-0.00	17	58%	0.10	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	15	41%	0.05	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.18	-0.09	-0.02	11	14%	-0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	27.2	16.3	21.5	2.5	35.2	128.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -13.7%

SAC +4.9%

SAC +37.9%

SAC +21.0%

SEA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAC	NBA	SEA	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	16.1	15.6	110.5	114.4	104.4
season	15.0	15.3		108.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.8	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.4	13.2	12.5	16.7	13.9
SAC	16.0	16.1	16.8	15.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	69	71	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.22	8	-14	22	12.9	16.7	-3.88	15.8	16.8	-1.07
Johan Petro	27	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.09	-5	-1	-4	13.0	14.3	-1.28	15.0	16.5	-1.52
Nick Collison	62	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.30	5	-11	16	14.0	13.8	0.10	16.6	14.9	1.68
Rashard Lewis	71	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.35	4	-10	14	13.0	16.7	-3.68	15.8	16.8	-1.03
Damien Wilkins	24	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	4	-14	16.7	13.0	3.68	16.8	15.8	1.03
Mikki Moore	42	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-3	0	13.6	14.2	-0.62	17.4	15.0	2.37
Ray Allen	83	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	1	-8	14.4	10.7	3.62	15.7	18.3	-2.59
Chris Wilcox	59	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	3	-12	14.5	12.9	1.65	15.0	17.8	-2.74
Earl Watson	38	39	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.19	-13	7	-20	14.8	13.3	1.54	17.3	15.2	2.13

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	62	59	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.47	7	-1	8	16.2	15.8	0.36	14.1	13.7	0.40
Kevin Martin	34	34	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-5	16	17.6	15.2	2.35	15.2	13.2	2.05
Kenny Thomas	86	84	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	4	-2	15.8	17.9	-2.08	13.6	16.0	-2.36
Bonzi Wells	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.30	2	4	-2	15.6	17.8	-2.19	14.2	12.7	1.48
Jason Hart	26	27	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	-1	8	19.2	14.9	4.33	14.9	13.5	1.36
Mike Bibby	71	68	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	7	-8	14.9	19.2	-4.33	13.5	14.9	-1.36
Francisco Garcia	9	9	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.03	4	2	2	18.6	15.8	2.75	14.4	13.9	0.58
Metta World Peace	74	72	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	11	-16	15.5	17.8	-2.26	12.9	17.1	-4.18
Brad Miller	46	47	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.15	3	3	0	16.3	15.8	0.50	14.2	13.6	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.27,0.31,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	91.2%
MIN 88, UTA 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.17,0.19,0.31,0.54,0.66,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.92,1	90.7%
UTA 87, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.31,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.84,0.69,0.85,1	90.7%