NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	84		Excitement	3.3 [1147]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +8.0%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	1.5 [1004]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -6.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Esteban Batista	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.05	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
John Edwards	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donta Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	19	56%	0.04	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	18	47%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	10	46%	0.02	4	-0.07	4	25%	-0.03
Josh Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	16	42%	0.01	4	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	18	63%	0.12	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	14	64%	0.13	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	11	52%	0.06	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	17	39%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	6	31%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.4	27.3	15.8	25.8	2.4	27.4	126.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +16.3%

DET +12.1%

DET +5.8%

DET +14.1%

DET +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	14.9	18.4	15.6	96.6	105.8	104.4
season	15.6	16.9		103.9	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.4	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	16.3	15.8	13.2	14.9
DET	17.0	20.7	17.7	18.7	18.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Edwards	4	4	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-2	-3	18.2	14.7	3.54	18.7	18.4	0.32
Royal Ivey	38	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	16.1	14.0	2.09	19.8	17.4	2.40
Zaza Pachulia	62	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.43	9	-16	25	15.2	14.1	1.06	19.0	16.7	2.30
Esteban Batista	16	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	1	-9	14.2	15.0	-0.84	13.6	19.4	-5.73
Donta Smith	14	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	1	-9	12.5	15.3	-2.83	16.9	18.7	-1.77
Joe Johnson	77	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.45	7	-14	21	14.4	18.6	-4.21	18.3	19.5	-1.17
Josh Smith	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-5	3	15.0	13.6	1.47	19.0	12.6	6.41
Al Harrington	76	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	2	-11	14.9	14.7	0.17	18.1	20.3	-2.20
Josh Childress	70	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.15	-16	9	-25	14.7	15.4	-0.67	18.2	19.6	-1.43

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	42	45	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	-3	13	18.5	18.4	0.02	15.2	14.5	0.63
Rasheed Wallace	67	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	19.6	14.4	5.23	15.5	12.8	2.78
Tayshaun Prince	69	70	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	17.8	21.1	-3.34	14.2	17.5	-3.23
Maurice Evans	37	37	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	-2	11	18.7	18.3	0.41	15.1	14.7	0.31
Chauncey Billups	67	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	6	-5	19.2	15.8	3.40	15.4	13.5	1.90
Richard Hamilton	59	59	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	10	-13	18.2	18.9	-0.71	14.9	14.9	0.02
Ben Wallace	59	59	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	5	-3	17.4	20.7	-3.24	14.5	15.7	-1.24
Lindsey Hunter	19	23	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	1	5	15.8	19.2	-3.40	12.9	15.6	-2.67
Carlos Delfino	10	10	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	1	5	22.5	17.9	4.59	18.0	14.5	3.53
Dale Davis	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	9	-11	10.0	18.5	-8.54	0.0	15.0	-15.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 94, DAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
SAS 78, DET 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.3%
LAL 80, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%