NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	5.6 [708]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): +18.7%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	2.6 [758]		LVP	Trenton Hassell (MIN): -19.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Griffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	0.10	-0.05	0.05	22	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.09	-0.03	0.05	14	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Justin Reed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mark Madsen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	11	39%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Rashad McCants	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	0.03	11	36%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	0.00	12	33%	-0.07	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.23	0.03	0.07	9	96%	0.22	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.03	-0.01	11	70%	0.18	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	5	100%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.13	0.04	-0.06	16	38%	0.06	5	-0.09	7	43%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	14	40%	-0.10	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.5	34.7	19.6	24.1	2.8	49.4	158.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +36.8%

GSW +7.7%

GSW +10.3%

MIN -4.1%

MIN -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.6	101.0	107.1	104.4
season	16.1	14.8		101.0	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		104.0	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.3	17.7	18.0	13.5	15.7
GSW	14.5	13.8	13.3	14.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trenton Hassell	66	68	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.33	8	-16	24	14.5	18.4	-3.82	14.6	12.5	2.17
Mark Blount	58	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-6	4	16.4	14.8	1.57	13.8	14.2	-0.39
Justin Reed	25	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	0	-8	17.6	15.1	2.52	12.2	14.6	-2.38
Marcus Banks	78	78	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-12	16	15.3	17.7	-2.37	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Mark Madsen	5	5	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	20.0	15.5	4.49	14.2	14.0	0.24
Kevin Garnett	77	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-7	6	15.3	17.7	-2.42	14.1	13.3	0.88
Eddie Griffin	25	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	1	-10	17.9	15.0	2.89	14.7	13.7	1.01
Ricky Davis	85	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-6	4	15.6	17.2	-1.63	13.7	15.7	-1.98
Marko Jaric	25	26	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	6	-20	17.7	15.1	2.62	14.3	13.8	0.46
Rashad McCants	36	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	3	-14	14.6	16.4	-1.76	13.7	14.1	-0.42

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	61	62	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	-3	14	14.2	13.6	0.60	16.7	14.0	2.69
Troy Murphy	69	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	1	6	14.1	13.8	0.30	15.4	16.6	-1.17
Jason Richardson	83	81	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.19	6	2	4	14.1	13.1	1.07	15.5	16.8	-1.26
Mickael Pietrus	60	58	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.33	1	7	-6	13.7	14.4	-0.69	14.1	18.2	-4.13
Monta Ellis	29	29	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.03	10	-2	12	13.4	14.2	-0.84	17.6	14.9	2.65
Ike Diogu	47	46	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	4	0	13.8	14.1	-0.35	16.8	14.7	2.09
Adonal Foyle	36	36	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	-1	10	14.2	13.9	0.31	16.8	15.1	1.71
Andris Biedrins	28	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	5	-2	13.7	14.1	-0.41	16.7	15.4	1.36
Derek Fisher	69	67	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.35	-9	17	-26	14.1	13.6	0.50	14.2	19.2	-4.97
Calbert Cheaney	8	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	10	-12	13.9	14.0	-0.10	16.9	15.7	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.6,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.95,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 76, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
PHI 85, BOS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
MIN 84, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.69,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.92,0.98,1,1,1	93.8%