NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	7.8 [295]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +84.5%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	15.8 [150]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -9.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.04	0.01	15	66%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	20	63%	0.32	4	-0.19	6	83%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.03,0.16,0.16,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	17	66%	0.20	5	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	12	21%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.2,0.28,0.39,0.84	0.84	0.18	0.66	-0.00	27	59%	0.84	0	0.00	9	78%	0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.04	-0.01	24	57%	0.11	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.05
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	13	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	4	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.5	34.3	18.5	27.4	2.7	35.2	149.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +1.5%

MIA +4.9%

MIA +0.3%

MIA +40.6%

MIA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.3	15.8	15.6	114.0	113.6	104.4
season	16.9	15.5		108.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.3	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	18.5	15.4	18.4	17.3
MIA	14.8	15.8	15.9	16.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	27	28	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.06	5	-7	12	15.9	18.0	-2.09	16.5	15.4	1.09
Carlos Arroyo	12	11	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.02	5	-7	12	21.1	16.7	4.37	17.5	15.5	2.00
Carlos Delfino	22	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-1	0	18.5	16.9	1.64	15.4	15.9	-0.58
Maurice Evans	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-2	2	13.8	17.7	-3.96	14.3	16.0	-1.63
Dale Davis	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	1	-4	15.4	17.5	-2.15	9.7	16.4	-6.65
Tayshaun Prince	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-4	6	18.3	13.2	5.08	16.1	14.5	1.57
Rasheed Wallace	78	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-3	4	17.7	13.2	4.49	16.2	11.6	4.59
Richard Hamilton	71	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.48	-5	3	-8	16.5	21.4	-4.94	15.8	15.7	0.10
Chauncey Billups	74	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.42	-7	5	-12	16.7	21.1	-4.37	15.5	17.5	-2.00
Ben Wallace	59	60	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.51	-7	5	-12	17.7	16.5	1.18	15.7	16.0	-0.30

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	29	27	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.49	9	-7	16	17.3	15.1	2.21	16.6	17.7	-1.12
Gary Payton	56	56	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-8	18	16.1	15.3	0.76	17.0	18.0	-0.98
Shaquille O'Neal	65	65	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-6	14	15.7	16.0	-0.22	18.2	14.5	3.71
Dwyane Wade	79	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.45	4	-2	6	15.3	19.8	-4.44	17.5	16.0	1.48
Udonis Haslem	58	58	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.51	-3	5	-8	16.1	15.2	0.95	17.7	16.5	1.17
Antoine Walker	45	43	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.11	5	-3	8	15.6	16.0	-0.49	16.0	18.6	-2.56
Jason Williams	43	42	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	6	-10	14.9	16.7	-1.83	17.2	17.5	-0.31
Alonzo Mourning	23	21	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	8	-14	16.0	15.7	0.22	14.5	18.2	-3.71
James Posey	42	41	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.04	-13	15	-28	16.0	15.6	0.44	19.0	15.8	3.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 70, DEN 72	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.21,0.23,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.26,1	93.0%
TOR 79, CHH 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.15,0.06,0.26,1	92.8%
MEM 95, OKC 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.42,1	91.7%