NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	6.9 [459]		MVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): +32.6%
Sacramento Kings	98		Comeback	1.5 [963]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (SAC): -18.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Buckner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	9	55%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	17	63%	0.16	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	12	72%	0.11	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Marcus Camby	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	13	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Earl Watson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	13	26%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	10	35%	-0.06	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.23	0.10	-0.00	9	96%	0.35	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	19	44%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	10	56%	0.20	4	-0.13	7	71%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.05	0.02	13	48%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	9	56%	0.04	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.18	-0.01	-0.01	16	19%	-0.16	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	30.5	16.4	26.5	2.7	34.3	137.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +23.4%

SAC +10.1%

SAC +27.1%

DEN -9.2%

DEN -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	16.1	15.6	95.8	101.0	104.4
season	14.4	15.3		103.5	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	14.5	12.7	15.5	13.9
SAC	15.3	14.9	17.1	17.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	63	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-15	23	13.1	15.4	-2.25	17.0	14.3	2.66
Earl Watson	46	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	-1	-5	14.2	13.6	0.69	17.5	14.8	2.68
Kenyon Martin	74	75	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-7	7	13.4	15.5	-2.04	16.4	15.0	1.47
Eduardo Najera	45	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	1	-9	14.3	13.5	0.81	15.4	16.8	-1.42
Andre Miller	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-4	1	14.0	13.7	0.32	16.5	15.3	1.21
Earl Boykins	56	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-3	-1	14.1	13.6	0.54	15.1	17.6	-2.46
Marcus Camby	71	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.33	-6	-1	-5	14.1	13.3	0.79	16.2	15.7	0.50
Greg Buckner	59	61	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.09	-16	9	-25	14.1	13.6	0.53	14.6	18.6	-4.05

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	50	48	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.11	15	-8	23	14.8	17.4	-2.59	14.1	13.6	0.53
Metta World Peace	73	73	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	5	-3	17.5	11.7	5.83	14.6	11.6	2.98
Kenny Thomas	80	78	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.32	0	7	-7	16.2	15.6	0.54	13.6	15.1	-1.43
Brian Skinner	33	32	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.12	7	0	7	15.7	16.3	-0.60	15.4	13.1	2.34
Mike Bibby	76	73	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	8	-9	15.7	17.6	-1.95	13.0	16.7	-3.70
Bonzi Wells	70	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	7	-7	16.0	16.3	-0.33	12.9	16.4	-3.53
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	64	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	7	-7	16.3	15.7	0.60	13.1	15.4	-2.34
Corliss Williamson	17	17	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	0	7	15.6	16.2	-0.54	15.1	13.6	1.43
Francisco Garcia	22	23	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	2	3	15.9	16.1	-0.24	16.8	12.9	3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.84,0.91,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.79,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.98,1,1	93.7%
MIA 88, SAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.94,1,1	93.7%
TOR 86, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.92,0.89,0.96,1,1	93.5%