NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	9.4 [116]		MVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): +46.0%
Houston Rockets	90		Comeback	2.5 [265]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -36.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.46	-0.01	0.44	-0.03	13	55%	0.55	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.05
Earl Watson	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.20	0.12	-0.00	8	125%	0.44	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.20	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.2	-0.06	0.25	-0.01	17	49%	0.30	4	-0.10	5	80%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.07	0.00	4	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Linas Kleiza	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	48%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Francisco Elson	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	5	50%	-0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.36,-0.36	-0.08	-0.28	-0.00	11	46%	-0.12	4	-0.24	2	50%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,0.08,0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	-0.00	16	47%	0.28	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.06
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.11	0.00	16	71%	0.34	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	-0.00	10	70%	0.22	2	-0.17	3	67%	-0.04
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Lucas III	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	16	44%	0.04	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.06
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	14	38%	-0.03	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	28.3	17.5	22.4	2.4	38.5	138.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.3%

DEN +5.8%

DEN +13.7%

HOU -6.1%

DEN +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	16.3	15.6	102.2	97.8	104.4
season	14.4	16.1		103.5	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.9		101.4	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	16.0	15.3	16.6	15.3
HOU	17.8	17.5	15.4	14.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	62	64	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-5	12	15.8	14.1	1.68	16.5	16.0	0.54
Greg Buckner	56	57	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-6	14	16.3	13.6	2.66	16.8	15.6	1.19
Carmelo Anthony	72	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.55	1	1	0	16.0	12.6	3.36	16.4	16.1	0.36
Earl Boykins	60	64	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.53	-5	7	-12	14.6	16.6	-2.00	15.9	17.4	-1.52
Andre Miller	75	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	1	0	16.2	10.7	5.48	16.0	17.6	-1.61
Earl Watson	43	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	-1	4	13.2	17.2	-4.00	16.5	16.2	0.28
Kenyon Martin	17	17	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	-2	6	15.3	15.3	-0.01	17.3	16.1	1.17
DerMarr Johnson	14	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	4	-6	10.5	16.2	-5.68	15.3	16.5	-1.28
Eduardo Najera	51	52	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.08	-7	9	-16	15.1	15.5	-0.38	16.4	16.2	0.15

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonny Baxter	42	40	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.05	7	-9	16	16.8	15.9	0.91	12.8	17.3	-4.50
Tracy McGrady	35	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	2	-6	18.3	15.1	3.19	14.3	15.9	-1.66
Stromile Swift	70	68	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-2	2	16.9	14.5	2.35	15.3	15.3	0.04
Jon Barry	12	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	0	-2	16.6	16.3	0.28	14.6	15.4	-0.76
Dikembe Mutombo	47	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.17	-2	0	-2	15.9	16.8	-0.86	17.2	13.2	4.05
Rafer Alston	85	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-4	6	16.0	20.4	-4.43	15.5	13.0	2.46
David Wesley	80	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.46	0	-2	2	16.3	16.6	-0.28	15.4	14.6	0.76
Luther Head	64	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	0	-2	15.7	17.8	-2.08	15.6	14.5	1.11
Ryan Bowen	25	25	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.58	-9	7	-16	14.7	16.9	-2.22	15.6	15.2	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 107, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.31,0.42,0	90.7%
MEM 104, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.42,0	90.7%
ORL 104, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.35,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.27,0	90.6%