NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	5.9 [651]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +37.7%
Detroit Pistons	108		Comeback	2.2 [813]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (ORL): -5.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	11	71%	0.15	3	-0.08	9	67%	-0.01
Mario Kasun	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	10	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	17	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.03	13	60%	0.06	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	7	47%	0.06	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.28	0.14	0.05	15	79%	0.40	1	-0.03	17	88%	0.03
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	17	68%	0.21	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	52%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.01	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	14	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	25.7	16.4	26.2	2.5	35.5	133.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +35.0%

DET +2.0%

ORL -0.5%

DET +10.6%

DET +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.6	113.8	125.6	104.4
season	16.4	16.9		104.4	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.2	14.7	18.1	17.2	16.5
DET	17.3	18.0	14.6	17.1	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	7	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-9	9	13.7	16.8	-3.06	23.2	16.3	6.88
Hedo Turkoglu	36	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-11	13	15.4	17.3	-1.94	17.1	16.5	0.63
Pat Garrity	20	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-9	9	16.0	16.7	-0.62	17.7	16.5	1.19
DeShawn Stevenson	50	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	16.6	16.4	0.21	17.4	15.9	1.46
Jameer Nelson	44	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-8	7	15.9	17.2	-1.35	17.0	16.5	0.47
Tony Battie	67	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	0	-9	16.7	16.0	0.62	16.5	17.7	-1.19
Grant Hill	68	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-1	-7	16.5	16.5	0.07	16.3	18.3	-1.99
Dwight Howard	77	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.24	-10	1	-11	17.1	11.8	5.34	16.4	19.9	-3.43
Steve Francis	66	66	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.19	-14	5	-19	17.1	14.8	2.33	16.2	18.6	-2.45

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	77	78	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-5	19	16.4	20.1	-3.73	16.8	14.0	2.82
Rasheed Wallace	66	68	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-2	13	16.8	16.7	0.02	16.9	15.2	1.69
Tayshaun Prince	69	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-2	13	16.6	17.4	-0.73	16.6	16.2	0.39
Richard Hamilton	70	70	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	2	5	16.5	17.7	-1.21	16.8	15.4	1.46
Carlos Delfino	24	25	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	4	1	16.6	16.8	-0.26	16.9	16.4	0.55
Ben Wallace	66	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.06	6	3	3	16.5	17.6	-1.15	16.4	16.9	-0.45
Antonio McDyess	40	41	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	8	-7	17.2	16.4	0.81	16.1	16.9	-0.82
Maurice Evans	9	10	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	14	-19	20.1	16.4	3.73	13.0	17.0	-3.99
Carlos Arroyo	9	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	14	-19	20.1	16.4	3.73	14.0	16.8	-2.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 73, PHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.6,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
DAL 95, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	93.4%
SEA 102, HOU 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.99,0.98,1,1	93.2%