NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	123		Excitement	3.2 [1181]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +14.4%
Washington Wizards	111		Comeback	1.1 [580]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (WAS): -7.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	24	59%	0.17	3	-0.02	16	87%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	11	77%	0.12	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.15	0.01	0.07	14	73%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Luther Head	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.04	9	58%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
David Wesley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.11	0.00	0.10	5	86%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	57%	0.03	3	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.19	0.01	0.11	25	67%	0.16	4	-0.06	16	81%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.06	15	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.02	18	49%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.00	0.07	5	69%	0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	4	87%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Awvee Storey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	10%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	8	28%	-0.04	3	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	25.1	15.5	29.3	2.5	32.3	134.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +45.2%

HOU +1.0%

HOU +5.8%

WAS -2.0%

WAS -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	WAS	NBA	HOU	WAS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.6	132.3	122.0	104.4
season	16.1	15.1		99.9	107.4
opponent	15.6	16.1		105.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.1	17.0	13.5	17.5	15.9
WAS	15.9	15.8	15.3	14.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	78	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-4	20	16.5	12.8	3.74	15.6	14.3	1.23
Rafer Alston	60	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	-4	20	16.1	15.6	0.56	16.4	13.3	3.03
Tracy McGrady	71	70	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	2	8	14.9	19.2	-4.25	14.9	16.9	-2.00
Dikembe Mutombo	48	47	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	-2	16	14.7	17.2	-2.49	15.6	15.1	0.48
David Wesley	47	47	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	3	6	16.8	15.1	1.68	15.7	15.0	0.79
Luther Head	63	60	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	12	-12	15.4	17.0	-1.57	14.8	16.4	-1.50
Stromile Swift	54	54	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.44	-10	22	-32	15.9	15.9	0.02	15.1	15.8	-0.66
John Lucas III	29	26	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	13	-14	16.8	15.5	1.30	14.3	15.8	-1.48
Ryan Bowen	15	14	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.10	6	6	0	18.4	15.5	2.94	15.4	15.4	-0.01

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Awvee Storey	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-15	18	6.0	15.5	-9.47	14.0	16.0	-1.96
Michael Ruffin	30	31	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.41	14	-26	40	14.7	15.7	-0.99	14.8	16.5	-1.74
Calvin Booth	23	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-18	24	14.2	15.8	-1.59	13.8	16.7	-2.92
Chucky Atkins	45	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.29	6	-18	24	14.8	15.9	-1.16	15.1	16.8	-1.63
Etan Thomas	15	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-7	2	16.5	15.1	1.32	18.6	15.4	3.25
Antonio Daniels	39	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.32	6	-18	24	15.2	15.5	-0.37	16.3	15.6	0.68
Jared Jeffries	24	24	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.30	-22	10	-32	17.3	14.7	2.62	16.2	15.8	0.37
Brendan Haywood	41	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.21	-19	7	-26	15.7	15.1	0.67	15.5	16.3	-0.76
Antawn Jamison	78	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-1	-10	15.1	17.0	-1.91	16.4	13.7	2.71
Gilbert Arenas	85	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	5	-22	15.3	15.8	-0.50	16.2	13.0	3.17
Caron Butler	74	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.11	-21	9	-30	15.9	13.2	2.69	16.3	14.4	1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 87, SAC 73	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
LAL 118, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
DAL 119, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%