NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	5.7 [694]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +21.7%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	2.1 [820]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -19.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.04	-0.04	18	62%	0.20	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.04
Bobby Simmons	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.03	9	65%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.01	0.04	8	55%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	6	43%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jiri Welsch	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	6	36%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	14	47%	-0.02	6	-0.17	17	71%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.17	0.06	0.01	14	74%	0.25	4	-0.04	19	79%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.02	0.02	10	90%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	3	42%	0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	18	59%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.06	10	33%	0.01	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	34.2	15.6	26.9	2.0	34.4	142.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +3.3%

MIA +18.2%

MIA +3.3%

MIA +23.5%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	14.5	15.6	99.0	110.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.5		104.6	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	14.8	14.5	15.4	14.5
MIA	14.7	14.6	14.9	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reece Gaines	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	10.5	14.6	-4.13	15.3	14.5	0.81
T.J. Ford	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-11	11	14.1	14.6	-0.48	14.2	14.6	-0.38
Jermaine Jackson	30	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-15	19	14.0	14.8	-0.73	15.2	14.2	0.99
Dan Gadzuric	6	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-6	1	12.2	14.7	-2.53	14.8	14.5	0.31
Jiri Welsch	38	38	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-13	15	13.8	15.0	-1.14	15.6	13.9	1.63
Toni Kukoc	49	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-13	15	13.3	15.8	-2.49	14.3	14.7	-0.39
Ervin Johnson	19	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-3	-5	16.2	14.2	2.00	15.7	14.3	1.44
Jamaal Magloire	46	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-6	1	15.3	13.9	1.46	14.1	14.9	-0.78
Andrew Bogut	78	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-5	-1	14.7	14.1	0.57	14.6	14.3	0.35
Bobby Simmons	61	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	2	-15	15.0	13.8	1.14	13.9	15.6	-1.63
Mo Williams	73	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	1	-13	14.4	15.0	-0.62	14.6	14.3	0.31
Michael Redd	84	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.06	-16	5	-21	15.0	11.9	3.08	14.2	16.2	-1.96

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	84	84	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.17	20	-9	29	14.2	16.7	-2.58	14.7	13.4	1.35
Shaquille O'Neal	63	65	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.04	21	-10	31	14.1	15.3	-1.24	15.0	13.7	1.28
Jason Williams	76	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	2	7	14.1	16.0	-1.95	15.2	12.4	2.81
Udonis Haslem	58	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	2	7	13.7	15.7	-1.94	14.3	14.9	-0.58
James Posey	58	59	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	4	3	14.4	14.7	-0.32	14.4	14.7	-0.26
Gary Payton	53	53	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.17	1	10	-9	15.1	13.9	1.18	14.2	15.0	-0.81
Antoine Walker	41	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	9	-7	15.7	13.7	1.94	14.9	14.3	0.58
Jason Kapono	26	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	15	-19	16.3	13.9	2.39	12.9	15.1	-2.20
Alonzo Mourning	36	34	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	21	-31	15.3	14.1	1.24	13.7	15.0	-1.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.82,0.85,0.71,0.85,0.9,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 94, NYK 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
LAC 81, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 90, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,1,1	94.0%