NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	98		Excitement	6.4 [545]		MVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): +16.2%
Boston Celtics	109		Comeback	1.5 [989]		LVP	Orien Greene (BOS): -11.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	20	54%	0.16	0	0.00	10	80%	0.00
Aaron Miles	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	10	52%	0.09	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Adonal Foyle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	25	46%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	19	47%	0.03	3	-0.08	13	62%	-0.06
Mike Dunleavy	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	7	62%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	10	59%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	11	64%	0.13	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	56%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.02	10	59%	0.07	3	-0.07	9	78%	0.02
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.04	-0.02	16	47%	0.09	5	-0.11	8	75%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	16	52%	0.04	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	30.1	14.7	26.5	2.3	29.6	129.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.9%

BOS +3.4%

BOS +20.1%

GSW -9.8%

GSW -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	14.4	15.6	99.0	109.0	104.4
season	14.8	14.8		102.9	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		104.8	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.0	12.6	14.2	16.8	14.5
BOS	14.4	13.6	14.6	15.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Miles	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	19.0	14.5	4.52	11.0	14.5	-3.45
Mike Dunleavy	57	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-11	11	14.1	15.1	-0.95	14.9	13.7	1.25
Adonal Foyle	51	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-8	5	14.7	14.3	0.37	15.1	13.6	1.52
Ike Diogu	6	6	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	-4	-3	16.2	14.4	1.75	9.8	14.7	-4.88
Jason Richardson	88	88	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-8	5	14.2	16.9	-2.68	14.2	15.8	-1.61
Zarko Cabarkapa	12	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-3	-5	15.5	14.4	1.11	12.8	14.7	-1.90
Baron Davis	80	80	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-10	9	14.0	16.5	-2.48	14.3	14.9	-0.60
Andris Biedrins	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-11	11	14.9	14.3	0.58	14.2	14.5	-0.39
Troy Murphy	88	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-7	3	14.4	15.8	-1.45	14.6	13.3	1.28
Calbert Cheaney	32	33	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	0	-11	14.0	14.8	-0.78	15.0	14.1	0.87
Derek Fisher	47	48	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.06	-20	9	-29	16.0	13.2	2.85	14.1	14.7	-0.57

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	50	49	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.08	14	-3	17	14.1	14.7	-0.60	15.2	13.8	1.42
Ryan Gomes	31	30	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-3	17	14.6	14.3	0.33	16.4	13.7	2.69
Ricky Davis	90	89	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	3	5	14.7	12.2	2.47	14.0	18.9	-4.87
Orien Greene	49	47	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	0	11	14.3	14.5	-0.22	13.9	15.1	-1.28
Raef LaFrentz	55	54	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	3	5	14.1	14.8	-0.61	15.3	13.6	1.61
Marcus Banks	57	58	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	9	-7	14.4	14.4	0.04	14.7	14.3	0.31
Paul Pierce	80	80	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	12	-13	14.2	15.4	-1.29	14.4	15.2	-0.85
Mark Blount	56	55	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	11	-11	14.6	14.2	0.43	14.0	15.2	-1.26
Kendrick Perkins	32	33	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	12	-13	14.9	14.2	0.72	13.9	14.8	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 104, POR 115	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
TOR 96, BOS 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.6%
POR 92, OKC 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.73,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.93,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%