NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	4.9 [864]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +14.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	83		Comeback	2.5 [237]		LVP	Jamaal Magloire (MIL): -16.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.03	0.04	14	73%	0.18	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.05
Gary Payton	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	12	77%	0.22	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	12	41%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Fitch	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.01	0.07	11	55%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	10	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	48%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	22	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	15	50%	-0.01	5	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	10	29%	-0.09	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.0	30.0	15.8	24.3	2.4	29.6	130.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.2%

MIA +12.3%

MIL -3.2%

MIA +4.8%

MIA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	15.6	106.4	87.4	104.4
season	15.5	15.5		106.1	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	13.8	16.3	17.4	15.6
MIL	15.2	16.2	14.4	13.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	74	77	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.12	17	0	17	15.3	16.3	-1.01	15.0	14.8	0.18
Shaquille O'Neal	50	53	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.05	18	-1	19	15.0	16.2	-1.18	15.2	14.6	0.51
Dwyane Wade	86	86	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	5	7	15.4	17.0	-1.58	15.3	11.2	4.09
Jason Kapono	43	42	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.06	15	2	13	15.3	15.7	-0.42	15.4	14.5	0.90
Antoine Walker	41	41	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.22	19	-2	21	15.1	15.9	-0.72	15.4	14.6	0.86
James Posey	36	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.18	14	3	11	15.7	15.4	0.27	14.7	15.1	-0.37
Udonis Haslem	55	55	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	16	-15	16.0	14.9	1.12	14.6	15.4	-0.86
Alonzo Mourning	42	41	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	21	-25	16.0	15.2	0.81	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Gerald Fitch	23	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	15	-13	16.2	15.4	0.82	13.5	15.3	-1.80
Shandon Anderson	20	21	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.13	-9	26	-35	16.4	15.3	1.08	14.0	15.2	-1.13

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	13	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-14	11	12.5	15.3	-2.77	16.7	15.4	1.28
Dan Gadzuric	9	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-13	9	15.3	14.9	0.45	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Toni Kukoc	39	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-15	13	14.8	15.0	-0.22	14.7	16.1	-1.38
Josh Davis	9	9	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	-8	-1	11.8	15.3	-3.48	16.1	15.5	0.62
Reece Gaines	14	14	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.14	-12	-5	-7	17.9	14.4	3.44	12.1	16.1	-4.01
Michael Redd	84	83	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-13	9	14.8	15.7	-0.91	15.8	13.7	2.07
Jiri Welsch	84	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-5	-7	14.9	15.3	-0.39	15.9	13.2	2.69
Andrew Bogut	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	-2	-13	15.0	14.8	0.22	16.1	14.7	1.38
Jamaal Magloire	73	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-7	-3	15.3	13.7	1.62	15.5	15.8	-0.29
T.J. Ford	94	93	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	-3	-11	14.9	15.0	-0.07	15.5	19.0	-3.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 109, NJN 84	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
NOH 97, DAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.33,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
VAN 100, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%