NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	7.4 [357]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): +24.2%
Chicago Bulls	97		Comeback	1.0 [659]		LVP	Tyson Chandler (CHI): -11.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.24	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.11	-0.02	21	59%	0.27	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.03
James Posey	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	2	120%	0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	7	62%	0.14	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	12	41%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04	-0.10	0.05	-0.01	17	37%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Gerald Fitch	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.11	0.02	9	86%	0.24	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.05
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	79%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	18	55%	0.10	2	-0.06	11	73%	-0.07
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Sweetney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	47%	0.05	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Andres Nocioni	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	5	42%	0.01	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	1.8	33.2	15.7	26.0	2.0	37.0	145.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.4%

CHI -1.8%

CHI -7.9%

MIA +25.2%

MIA +10.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.9	14.9	15.6	111.1	106.6	104.4
season	15.5	14.4		106.1	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.5		102.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.2	15.2	18.6	17.1	16.9
CHI	12.8	16.1	16.6	14.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	50	51	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-9	21	16.6	17.4	-0.86	16.2	13.2	2.97
Dwyane Wade	80	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-2	7	16.8	18.4	-1.64	15.0	14.0	1.00
Gary Payton	78	77	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.43	-2	5	-7	17.1	16.1	0.99	14.6	16.4	-1.73
Gerald Fitch	41	40	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	-4	11	15.3	18.3	-3.03	15.5	14.4	1.04
Udonis Haslem	46	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.27	0	3	-3	16.7	17.2	-0.42	15.1	14.7	0.40
James Posey	35	37	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	4	-5	17.6	16.5	1.03	14.8	14.9	-0.13
Antoine Walker	44	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	0	3	17.2	16.7	0.42	14.7	15.1	-0.40
Shandon Anderson	36	37	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	3	-3	18.3	16.0	2.31	15.1	14.8	0.28
Jason Kapono	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	2	-1	2.0	17.1	-15.11	0.0	15.1	-15.06
Alonzo Mourning	39	40	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.14	-10	13	-23	17.8	16.3	1.55	13.2	16.2	-2.97

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	37	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.22	10	-13	23	15.5	14.5	1.01	18.6	15.9	2.73
Othella Harrington	14	13	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.08	3	-6	9	15.5	14.8	0.72	15.7	17.2	-1.46
Andres Nocioni	31	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	0	-3	14.8	14.9	-0.08	16.4	17.3	-0.90
Michael Sweetney	39	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	2	-7	15.3	14.6	0.73	17.2	16.8	0.41
Darius Songaila	42	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.45	9	-12	21	14.3	15.4	-1.03	17.3	16.6	0.73
Ben Gordon	50	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-4	5	14.2	15.8	-1.62	16.8	17.1	-0.33
Luol Deng	40	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	5	-13	15.3	14.5	0.78	15.8	17.8	-1.97
Chris Duhon	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.03	-14	11	-25	15.0	14.7	0.36	15.9	18.8	-2.89
Kirk Hinrich	79	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	15.2	13.0	2.18	17.5	12.8	4.70
Tyson Chandler	64	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	3	-9	14.4	16.1	-1.74	17.2	16.4	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.24,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.19,0.11,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.24,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0,0	93.3%
CHI 101, PHX 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.1,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.02,0	93.1%
HOU 97, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.16,0.24,0.26,0.4,0.26,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.02,0	93.0%