NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	95		Excitement	8.2 [239]		MVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): +11.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	94		Comeback	1.8 [337]		LVP	Antonio Daniels (SEA): -37.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11	-0.01	0.10	-0.02	28	51%	0.18	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Laron Profit	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Steve Blake	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damone Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Etan Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	7	75%	0.08	4	-0.15	6	83%	0.01
Kwame Brown	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	10	31%	-0.13	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.05
Gilbert Arenas	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.27	-0.05	-0.20	0.01	19	47%	-0.03	4	-0.24	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.00	8	45%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	16	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.16	0.02	20	52%	-0.11	3	-0.13	12	92%	0.04
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.37	-0.37	-0.02	-0.35	0.00	9	62%	-0.25	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.7	28.3	15.6	30.2	2.8	39.0	139.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +62.3%

SEA -10.5%

WAS +3.5%

SEA -9.2%

WAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SEA	NBA	WAS	SEA	NBA
this game	14.5	16.9	15.5	102.2	103.3	104.0
season	14.7	16.5		104.7	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.1	13.6	14.5	13.8	14.5
SEA	17.3	18.5	17.7	14.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	87	85	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	-4	9	14.1	19.3	-5.22	17.1	13.7	3.44
Jared Jeffries	65	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.50	-1	2	-3	14.0	15.5	-1.55	17.1	16.4	0.67
Etan Thomas	55	54	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	-9	19	13.3	16.1	-2.75	18.2	15.0	3.17
Gilbert Arenas	91	89	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	1	-1	14.4	19.0	-4.65	16.9	16.5	0.39
Michael Ruffin	33	31	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.39	-3	4	-7	15.3	14.0	1.27	15.4	17.6	-2.21
Damone Brown	24	23	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-7	15	15.0	14.2	0.80	16.4	17.0	-0.65
Kwame Brown	58	58	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.45	-8	9	-17	14.4	14.5	-0.05	17.2	16.4	0.81
Steve Blake	19	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	3	-5	17.2	13.8	3.40	16.6	16.9	-0.31
Laron Profit	33	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	5	-9	15.6	13.8	1.84	15.1	17.9	-2.80

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	23	25	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.14	-1	0	-1	16.4	17.0	-0.65	15.2	14.2	1.02
Vitaly Potapenko	9	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	4	-9	17.3	16.8	0.50	12.0	14.7	-2.75
Jerome James	29	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	4	-9	21.3	14.8	6.45	14.7	14.4	0.30
Luke Ridnour	46	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	1	-3	18.3	15.4	2.93	14.7	14.2	0.57
Damien Wilkins	26	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-3	5	15.0	17.6	-2.58	13.9	14.7	-0.85
Ray Allen	83	83	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.56	12	-13	25	16.7	18.9	-2.19	14.9	11.1	3.76
Nick Collison	59	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.48	7	-8	15	14.6	21.0	-6.36	14.6	14.2	0.47
Reggie Evans	47	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	5	-11	18.1	15.5	2.63	14.2	14.7	-0.52
Antonio Daniels	60	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	2	-5	16.0	18.6	-2.68	14.4	14.5	-0.15
Rashard Lewis	73	74	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.61	-4	3	-7	16.9	16.7	0.26	14.1	15.8	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.13,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 110, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.03,0	92.2%
MIA 104, BKN 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.17,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.08,0	92.1%
WAS 99, NOH 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	91.9%