NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	89		Excitement	1.9 [1298]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +6.0%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.0 [1262]		LVP	Dan Dickau (NOH): -8.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jackson Vroman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	12	68%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.06	8	65%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	11	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lee Nailon	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	15	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maciej Lampe	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	11	67%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	0.00	0.06	10	55%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.17	0.00	-0.09	13	19%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	8	82%	0.07	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.10	10	40%	0.04	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	11	62%	0.06	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	0.00	0.05	11	68%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.14	0.00	0.12	13	81%	0.03	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	4	100%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	57%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.4	28.7	16.6	25.0	1.8	23.5	120.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +25.9%

SAS +5.5%

SAS +14.1%

SAS +3.7%

SAS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.5	100.0	123.1	104.0
season	16.5	16.3		97.7	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.7		98.4	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.7	14.1	19.1	13.1	15.9
SAS	17.4	15.8	13.0	18.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bostjan Nachbar	43	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.45	13	-36	49	14.7	17.1	-2.41	16.7	15.5	1.18
Speedy Claxton	55	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.48	12	-35	47	15.0	17.4	-2.41	17.6	13.6	4.07
J.R. Smith	17	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.16	-12	-11	-1	17.3	15.6	1.70	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Maciej Lampe	48	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.28	2	-25	27	14.9	17.1	-2.18	16.8	15.2	1.60
Casey Jacobsen	55	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.22	-18	-5	-13	15.7	16.3	-0.65	16.2	15.8	0.41
Jackson Vroman	62	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.42	-27	4	-31	16.3	15.0	1.27	16.2	15.7	0.59
Dan Dickau	51	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.44	-28	5	-33	16.7	14.8	1.88	14.5	18.1	-3.57
P.J. Brown	57	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.45	-29	6	-35	17.3	13.4	3.93	15.3	17.3	-2.06
Lee Nailon	57	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.39	-28	5	-33	15.9	16.0	-0.12	15.6	17.1	-1.48

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	50	47	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.59	35	-12	47	15.7	16.6	-0.88	17.1	14.6	2.42
Bruce Bowen	54	55	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.46	29	-6	35	14.8	17.9	-3.06	17.6	13.2	4.39
Brent Barry	58	55	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.58	33	-10	43	16.4	15.5	0.83	16.7	14.7	2.01
Beno Udrih	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.41	26	-3	29	16.2	15.9	0.26	16.5	14.7	1.79
Rasho Nesterovic	36	34	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.51	29	-6	35	15.1	16.7	-1.55	17.6	14.9	2.65
Devin Brown	55	54	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.49	-9	32	-41	16.8	15.0	1.78	14.6	18.0	-3.38
Mike Wilks	50	47	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.41	-9	32	-41	16.3	15.8	0.58	14.1	17.9	-3.80
Nazr Mohammed	40	39	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	28	-33	15.0	16.9	-1.88	14.8	16.8	-1.91
Robert Horry	30	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.24	-5	28	-33	17.4	15.4	1.97	15.4	16.2	-0.85
Tony Massenburg	23	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.27	-9	32	-41	18.2	15.4	2.81	13.1	16.9	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 87, LAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
CHI 86, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
NJN 67, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%