NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	114		Excitement	9.2 [122]		MVP	Tom Gugliotta (ATL): +47.1%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	2.9 [281]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -18.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.34	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.34	0.15	0.19	-0.01	19	70%	0.36	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.01	16	63%	0.20	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.04	18	70%	0.21	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	66%	0.10	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.08
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.16	-0.06	-0.04	6	20%	-0.17	1	-0.02	8	25%	-0.09

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.16,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.47	0.06	0.41	-0.00	11	64%	0.50	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.08	0.03	18	63%	0.15	0	0.00	7	100%	0.08
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	28	63%	0.38	3	-0.23	3	100%	0.02
Jason Collier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.07	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Donta Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Obinna Ekezie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	5	80%	0.05	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	14	29%	-0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	28.3	14.6	31.1	2.5	34.3	1.7	14.7	151.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -24.3%

DET +9.6%

DET +57.7%

DET +3.8%

DET +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	17.2	16.3	15.5	120.0	113.7	104.0
season	16.7	15.6		103.5	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.9		108.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	15.6	15.3	19.4	17.9	19.1	17.2
ATL	17.1	17.5	14.2	16.4	16.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	80	78	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.36	17	-11	28	17.3	16.7	0.62	16.3	16.2	0.06
Richard Hamilton	79	79	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.33	14	-8	22	17.1	17.8	-0.75	16.6	14.7	1.84
Rasheed Wallace	76	75	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-5	16	17.3	16.6	0.76	16.9	13.9	3.02
Ben Wallace	79	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.26	10	-4	14	17.6	15.0	2.63	16.0	17.8	-1.84
Tayshaun Prince	85	85	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	-3	12	17.2	17.0	0.21	16.4	14.9	1.55
Ronald Dupree	10	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	9	-12	17.0	17.2	-0.21	14.9	16.4	-1.55
Carlos Arroyo	21	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.04	-8	14	-22	15.5	17.7	-2.20	16.2	16.3	-0.09
Antonio McDyess	35	36	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	15	-24	15.9	18.0	-2.11	15.6	16.7	-1.04
Lindsey Hunter	10	10	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.08	-11	17	-28	21.0	16.7	4.26	13.9	16.6	-2.66

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	14	13	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.23	1	-7	8	13.3	16.8	-3.52	12.4	18.0	-5.57
Jason Collier	25	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-5	4	16.2	16.3	-0.11	14.7	18.0	-3.26
Donta Smith	25	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.10	-7	1	-8	16.0	16.4	-0.33	16.0	17.5	-1.55
Obinna Ekezie	44	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	1	-8	15.8	16.7	-0.83	18.4	16.2	2.16
Tom Gugliotta	54	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-1	-4	16.8	15.7	1.10	15.7	18.9	-3.16
Royal Ivey	25	22	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	1	-8	16.8	16.1	0.75	15.2	17.8	-2.61
Josh Childress	78	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-5	4	16.2	16.5	-0.23	17.4	16.4	0.98
Tyronn Lue	69	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-7	8	16.3	16.2	0.13	17.8	15.2	2.61
Al Harrington	73	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-5	4	16.7	15.0	1.73	18.0	14.0	3.99
Josh Smith	60	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.59	3	-9	12	16.3	16.2	0.18	18.5	14.7	3.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.29,0.34,0.16,0.46,0.32,0.36,0.15,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 110, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.38,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0,0	89.3%
ORL 105, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.04,0	89.0%
LAL 112, MEM 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.32,0.26,0.41,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.04,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.05,0.02,0	88.7%